There was no clear successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was reportedly killed yesterday, Dr Leon Goldsmith, of the University of Otago, said.
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Iranian state media reported the death following airstrikes by the United States and Israel, and US President Donald Trump said "one of the most evil people in history" was now dead.
Dr Goldsmith said the Israelis and Americans, despite having immense military power, could not control what would happen on the ground inside Iran.
"So you'll have a lot of different groups trying to push their agenda," he said.
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Dr Goldsmith said the military security apparatus of Iran seemed to be heavily compromised.
"They couldn't even protect the Supreme Leader when it was all signalled well in advance what was going to happen," he said.
"So, they've got serious problems, regardless of any residual military or political capacity."
There had been capital flight out of Tehran, he said.
Lack of a clear successor could lead to further internal turmoil among the inner core of the elite, he said.
Dr Goldsmith said the Iranian people had been in a living hell with corruption, economic mismanagement and political repression.
A key broader issue was the power and influence of China in the region, he said.
China would be looking to adjust and have influence in Iran as its future took shape.
University of Otago international relations academic Prof Robert Patman said he did not foresee a smooth or peaceful regime change handover if "the United States and Israel continue to bomb the country".
"Iran is quite a big country and it seems to me that there's an assumption that the regime will quickly collapse under airstrikes and the Iranian people will take charge of the government," Prof Patman said.
"I'm not sure that's going to happen — and even if they do, they will want to make sure that it's not America calling the shots and determining their future."
