Former mayor Aaron Hawkins is the obvious frontrunner in the Dunedin City Council by-election, yet keep an eye on Andrew Whiley and Conrad Stedman.
Why? In a single-member STV election, polarising candidates can struggle. Mr Hawkins will draw strong support, but will it outweigh the combined preferences of those reluctant to back a Green former mayor?
Under FPP, Mr Hawkins would likely romp home unless somehow most other voters united behind a single challenger. That challenger would probably have been Mr Stedman, given endorsements from Crs Andrew Simms, Lee Vandervis and Russell Lund.
The non-Green, non-Left vote could easily have splintered among several former councillors, not just between Messrs Whiley and Stedman. Bill Acklin and Carmen Houlahan might have peeled off chunks of support, and Jo Galer, a spending hawk, would have taken some too.
STV lets voters express themselves: they can back their favourite first, then rank others ahead of a polarising candidate. As contenders drop out, their vote can move down their list.
In several mayoral races, Cr Vandervis polled strongly on first preferences but faded as others were eliminated and their votes transferred elsewhere.
A single-seat by-election runs under the same STV rules as the mayoralty. Last October, Cr Simms led the mayoral count until the 13th iteration. By iteration 11, he was about 700 ahead, but when Green candidate Mickey Treadwell was eliminated, the margin shrank to about 200. Many of his supporters clearly preferred Cr Barker.
When left-winger Marie Laufiso was eliminated next, Cr Barker jumped more than 1900 ahead. Cr Jules Radich’s exit made little difference.
Mr Simms clawed back some ground when Cr Vandervis was excluded, but still finished about 900 behind as the new mayor reached an "absolute majority" of 16,425.
Civis sees a similar pattern emerging: Mr Hawkins may lead the early iterations, only to be overtaken later.
Every voting system has its pros and cons. In a single-member race, STV reduces vote-splitting and ensures the winner has majority support, though it can also reward the least disliked candidate.
By contrast, in a 14-seat contest like the council, STV allows groups of voters to gain proportional representation and encourages diversity. But the system is complex, and moderate candidates can struggle to reach the necessary "quota".
Mr Hawkins is the best-known figure, but Mr Stedman has had a term on the council and those notable endorsements.
Mr Whiley has been advertising hard and lost last October after 12 years on the council. Both have strong community ties.
The question is whether they will pick up enough rankings from each other and from other strong candidates as the exclusions mount.
The last candidate to miss out last year was Bruce Ranga. Next, in order, came those former councillors having another crack: Whiley, Houlahan, Stedman, Acklin. Interestingly, Ms Houlahan came closer to making it on the council than Mr Stedman. Messrs Ranga and Stedman were part of Mr Simms’ Future Dunedin team.
The blurbs in the voting papers, arriving about now, will matter.
Whoever wins will be stepping into the place of a much-appreciated councillor in Mr Radich. His sudden death still shocks.
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Journalist and presenter Tova O’Brien described her sleep the night before returning to TV as "iterative". She was teased for that on Midweek Mediawatch on RNZ last week.
Indeed, what’s wrong with "broken" sleep?
"Iteration" has become another business buzzword leaking into everyday language. It deserves to remain more precise than a catch-all for tweaks, improvements and changes.
