"Britain needs an escape plan from the Trump world order" — so opines a columnist for The Guardian.
True, but too narrow — much of the world, especially those of us in the small to medium range of more or less democratic nations, needs to get out from underneath.
Unfortunately, the United States is a broken entity and not likely to be put back together again quickly or easily.
Even if Trump were suddenly to disappear and his entourage jailed or otherwise relieved of their authority, it will take a long time to repair the damage, to resurrect all those institutions that did contribute a degree of greatness (it was never entirely unblemished) to the United States.
Further, the people who created and supported the chaos and corruption we now see will still be there, diminished perhaps, but still potent and willing to take advantage of the weaknesses of a political system that, for all its well-intentioned origins, has become rigid and at times unworkable.
While the three pillars of judiciary, congress and executive could lean on each other it seemed to work, but with the first two crumbling and the third teetering like a drunk who has lost his lamp-post, a rather more total collapse appears inevitable.
In the face of all this turmoil the man of the moment is Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, whose Davos speech has sparked widespread acceptance of the notion that the old "rules-based order" of the world is over.
Hence middle powers "must work together because if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu." (Apologies for repeating the most quoted line since Hamlet’s ontological query, but its truth is unavoidable.)
One commentator, however, while acknowledging its veracity, puts New Zealand in a different place: "New Zealand is not a middle power. We are not at the table and thankfully, not on the menu", observes Todd Muller, who briefly held the post of National Party leader in 2020.
We should, therefore, given the collapse of the old rules, carry on quietly, negotiating widely, doing it "the NZ way". Talking quietly. Directly. Often with some humour. Always with humility." In fact, exactly as our current minister of foreign affairs conducts our international relations, he says.
There are a couple of points to be made here.
Firstly, at what point does a small power become a middle one? Is five and a-bit million too small to have any influence? There are some who might suggest that footing it with the big lads is exactly "the NZ way", to the point where we are afflicted with smug cliches about "punching".
However, should one of the behemoths decide that this freebooting little country should be on the menu, we might regret having no table to share with other like-minded nations.
Secondly, there are internal considerations. International relations are not simply the province of secret squirrels who pull off clever deals behind closed doors, however humbly. They are in part an expression of national identity. To stand by a principle and defend it publicly is not grandstanding, but leadership. This the new governor of our Reserve Bank, Dr Anna Breman, seems to understand. It lets others know where we stand and what our values are. To his credit the prime minister has turned down Trump’s invitation to join his Board of Peace, so sparing us all considerable embarrassment. He might also show leadership by distancing himself and his party from Winston Peters’ appallingly stupid and self-serving remarks about the World Health Organisation.
Though the old rules-based system may be coming to an end, we are going to need some new rules if we are going to survive and prosper in the wider world. It would be a good idea to be able to contribute to the new regime, whatever it might be.
The way forward, though, seems clear: Europe should be the focus. There are two major elements to this argument, aside from the obvious consanguinities of culture and political values.
First, trade and economics.
An apparent flight away from US bonds and Trump’s obsession with tariffs have resulted in a fragile American economy and coupled with the deep-seated corruption of its government the order and stability we have relied on have gone.
International trade can and must continue, but not as some kind of free for all. And we might need to become a little more industrially self-sufficient both for our own security and to avoid distortions like China’s $1.2 trillion trade surplus.
Secondly, protection. We need to be part of a system that can deal to the oligarchs, the Thiels, Musks, etc, who are beholden to none but themselves.
These characters are at least as dangerous as any antagonistic state. Perhaps a coherent international agreement to tax them appropriately can be devised. There are numerous spheres in which going it alone would be simply silly. The military is obvious. Education, research (climate change, anyone?), cultural interaction.
It only takes a bit of vision and political will.
— Harry Love was the chairman of the Castle St branch of the Labour Party in 1987-88, and the New Labour parliamentary candidate for St Kilda in the 1990 election.
