Lockdown move the right call

New Zealanders have managed what few others could during the global Covid-19 pandemic. In Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s words, we have helped stop a wave of destruction.

Collectively — and at great cost to our wellbeing and to our economy — we have sacrificed our physical, commercial and financial freedom to stop Covid-19 securing a foothold.

Four weeks of Level 4 lockdown have worked. New Zealand has one of the lowest rates of confirmed Covid-19 cases and a transmission rate that is about a fifth of the global average.

There is a sense we have come a long way in a very short space of time. There is also a sense our sacrifice will mean nothing if we have to do it all again.

Ms Ardern talked about retaining the gains several times yesterday, when she announced New Zealand would move from Level 4 to a slightly more permissive Level 3 response next week.

Consistently improving transmission rates and increasingly detailed public health data made the move almost inevitable. Only the time it would take to move to Level 3 was uncertain.

There was plenty of chatter in the lead-up to the announcement, from pundits saying the Government had no choice but to relax the lockdown to assuage those worried about the economy.

Treasury last week told us the outlook worsened as the lockdown lingered and yesterday, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters told us Level 3 would mean getting 500,000 back to work.

In this context, Cabinet’s decision to add a few more days to the Level 4 period provides a not-insignificant frustration for businesses champing at the bit to make up for lost time.

There is no question Cabinet adopted a measured and balanced approach. It needed to protect significant public health gains and it needed to ensure mounting economic costs were minimised.

Its members have previously acknowledged every day counts for businesses paying wages, rent and utilities and, when the time comes, every day counts for businesses eager to re-establish their markets, secure their customers and meet their debts.

They are also right to maintain every day counts when containing a virus and, advised by Director-general of health Ashley Bloomfield, they were right to add two business days to the Level 4 lockdown to try to avoid entering Level 4 again.

Owners will now re-enter their businesses to retrieve stock and to get their books and premises ready for moving to Level 3. For many southern manufacturers and exporters, especially, this will be the final push in weeks of preparation.

There will be more economic activity but there will be no significant uptick in social activity. Social distancing rules mean there will be no immediate boon for retailers, and most hospitality businesses will stay closed.

These and other small to medium-sized businesses will need further financial assistance as the levels drop and until such a time as they can trade as normal. There is still no telling how many of these businesses will survive.

Over the past few days, events manager Dunedin Venues Management Ltd and Taieri Gorge Railway have confirmed trading halts and job losses. Targeted support will not help everyone.

In the fullness of time, many of those businesses will look back and wonder what might have happened had certain elements of the response been more hastily applied.

National Party leader Simon Bridges has already started, yesterday suggesting the Level 4 extension showed the Government had not done the groundwork required to more quickly relax the rules.

Such claims will be examined over the coming weeks as the economic impact of our collective sacrifice becomes clear. Whatever the case, we should acknowledge how fortunate we are to debate what we might seek to fix, rather than lives we were unable to save.