
There is a wise old adage that if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Trump has not so much broken as smashed to smithereens a delicately balanced international free trade system which functions in most country's interests.
The Wall Street Journal has called Trump's decision to slap a 25% tariff on most Canadian and Mexican goods, as well as a further 10% tariff on Chinese exports, "the dumbest trade war in history". It is difficult to disagree.
Canada and Mexico are the two biggest importers of US goods, unsurprisingly given their contiguous borders and three-way trade agreement. The US has a trade deficit with both countries, about $US40 billion ($NZ72.16b) with Canada, and a steadily increasing $US150b or so with Mexico.
No doubt the US would like to flatten the terms of trade, but that does not seem to be the intention behind Trump's bellicose stratagem.
His motive seems to be issues with imports of cheap Canadian pharmaceuticals and illegal migration through the US's southern border, although it is unclear exactly how higher tariffs will solve either of these difficult and long-standing issues.
Tariffs might grow domestic demand for locally-produced goods and create jobs, a major argument for them, but such a strategy is risky.
Quite apart from the fact that there is no guarantee that the US consumer will buy products formerly destined for export, any such demand will come at the cost of alienating two allied and friendly nations.
New Zealand is a small country and often bemoans its lack of influence on the geopolitical stage.
This might be one of those times when being small is beautiful.
Although there is a genuine risk of suffering collateral damage in any trade war, there are also potential opportunities for a bantamweight to pick up points while the heavyweights are slugging it out.
If US tariffs remain targeted rather than blanket impositions, there might be a chance to grow exports to the US.
In the alternative, countries targeted by Trump's tariffs may well find themselves looking for alternative suppliers and New Zealand primary produce, such as meat and wine are as good, if not better, than those produced in the US.
If Trump ends up imposing blanket tariffs that would be a graver concern: the US is New Zealand's third-largest export market and making our goods artificially more costly would not help firms selling there.
Exporters would face with the equally unpalatable options of selling for cheaper or abandoning a market they might have spent years developing to look for new customers.
The country's diplomats, trade negotiators, diplomats and exporters will need to be agile to dance through the minefield ahead.
The danger of New Zealand being dragged into a situation not of its making was alarmingly highlighted over the weekend, when a factually wrong article from Israel's Haaretz newspaper, which it has now corrected, concerning immigration rules for Israeli visitors to this country was highlighted on social media by leading US senator Ted Cruz.
The senator's introductory comment before linking to the story, that it would be "difficult to treat New Zealand as a normal ally within the American alliance system", was extremely unhelpful to this country's cause in building a positive relationship with the US.
Cruz's opinion was backed by a false and harmful premise that New Zealand was now questioning Israeli visitors about their military service and denying them visas.
It never has and is not now, information which senior MPs and diplomats swiftly and properly attempted to distribute as far and as fast as possible.
However, if Cruz's comment sticks in the back of the mind of US legislators, and New Zealand's adamant denial does not, it could be highly damaging.
New Zealand would not want this mistaken impression to influence a decision about tariffs involving our country taken well down the track.
The wellspring for this story was the "genocide hotline" protest by the Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa, a protest which this newspaper criticised last week.
We called it a stunt then; a few days on it has the potential to cause economic sabotage. While the PSNA would no doubt be delighted if New Zealand was pushed outside the American alliance system, there would be few who would share their joy.
Blunt instruments like tariffs and hotlines are dangerous tools in the hands of hotheads. Sadly for those navigating the fallout, calmness seeems unlikely to prevail.