"The best indicator of optimism about our regional economy is that the fundamentals here are still sound. We were having an OK year up until October 1, and if anyone is in a good position to ride out the storm, it's us."
The district's performance was a tale of two economies - the 12 months before October 1, and the 12 months ahead.
Before October, and the credit crunch, the picture was patchy, but often surprisingly good.
"Some businesses had experienced a poor-to-bad winter, but were feeling 'blossom-festival' optimism. Others had reported their best winter ever, including a rural service station and a township bakery, and talk of $100 lambs and better returns for all commodities, including even apples, had [put] tentative smiles on many rural faces."
Central Otago had led the country in visitor growth, up 17% on guest nights, compared with Queenstown Lakes at 4% and Dunedin -0.4%.
"Putting aside the current construction activity which had been planned and financed before October, things will change," he said.
"Surveyors had already been laying off staff, and surveyors were the 'canary in the coal mine' indicator because in any development the surveyors were first off the blocks.
If they're short of work, then the odds are we all will be in due course," Dr Macpherson said. Some of those businesses contacted by the Otago Daily Times said they had laid off one or two staff, but did not wish to be identified, while another company still had a full complement.
Dr Macpherson said applications for resource consents with the Central Otago District Council (CODC) had slowed, although building consents had remained consistent for the past 12 months.
While there was a lot of work in the pipeline, the real slowdown in construction activity - if it came at all - would be well after Christmas.
There could be a boom in domestic travel, and that from Australia, but in general, international tourism was a large unknown.
There were already reports of mass cancellations of hotel rooms in the early part of 2009 and some of Queenstown's larger employers are rolling through with their winter staff and not employing the usual summer levels, Dr Macpherson said.
Big debt-financed projects would be less certain, liquidations linked to investor defaults were already evident, and a number of large property transactions had already gone "belly-up".
As hospitality in Queenstown scaled back, people looking for work would suddenly find fruit picking an attractive option and that would boost the summer workforce.
"Have we seen the worst? It depends on who you ask.
"The better-informed and more credible commentators are saying we got very close to a world-wide melt-down in the week ending October 10, but that central bank and direct government intervention steadied the world ship in weeks three and four of October.
"Christmas would be the next big and real test of consumer confidence.
"My view is that this is a sea-change event. We already know it's an order of magnitude larger than the corrections of the '80s and '90s and that it will be several years before this one is over.
"Like the pessimists who say 'you ain't seen nothin' yet', I wonder about the gradual untangling of all those flash financial deals that sold and resold debt in many different packages to many different players, and the scale of the casualties when all that finally comes to book," Dr Macpherson said.
