The best thing about writing an annual column of sporting predictions is that you are not yet completely wrong.
The worst thing is that it is often not long before you are completely wrong.
In saying that, not once have I failed to predict at least four or five things on the money. Let me start by reflecting on this column a year ago and highlighting where I went right and where I went quite seriously not right.
The great calls
The All Blacks did sweep a weakened France side 3-0 and they did lose two games in the Rugby Championship. But they lost only one test, not two, on the fake Grand Slam tour.
England did win the Women’s Rugby World Cup, and the Black Ferns did dip out in the semifinals.
The Lions did win the series in Australia 2-1.
Matatu did make the Aupiki final and get beaten by the Blues.
The Otago Spirit did win the Championship section of the Farah Palmer Cup (and were cruelly denied promotion thanks to a competition rejig).
Liverpool did win the Premier League. Thank you, Arne Slot. But you may go now.
Queensland did win the State of Origin series 2-1.
Jannik Sinner did win two men’s tennis grand slams. Though Carlos Alcaraz won two, not one, and Taylor Fritz did not win one.
Lando Norris did win the Formula 1 drivers championship. Let’s not mention the prediction of Ferrari winning the constructors title.
The close calls
Fabian Holland (unusually named Fabian Edmonds in our caption on this page a year ago) indeed became an All Black. An extremely good one. But neither Josh Jacomb nor Riley Higgins joined him in black.
Canterbury made the final of the FPC Premiership but were beaten by Waikato.
Nearly predicted a Heartland Championship double. North Otago indeed won the Lochore Cup but Mid Canterbury, not Whanganui, won the Meads Cup.
Rhys Mariu is not a test cricket opener yet but he did make his ODI debut.
Australia played in the World Test Championship final but were beaten by South Africa.
The Otago Sparks indeed won the Hallyburton Johnstone Shield (in highly dramatic fashion) but were pipped in the Super Smash women’s final.
The Pulse did not win the ANZ Premiership but the Steel did finish fourth.
Is one from four a close call? Correctly predicted the NBA champions (OKC Thunder) but dipped out with Super Bowl (Eagles, not Lions), the Stanley Cup (Panthers, not Oilers) and Major League Baseball (Dodgers, not Mets).
My beloved Penrith Panthers did finally let someone else win the NRL title. But instead of the Storm beating the Sharks, it was the Broncos beating the Storm.
Aryna Sabalenka indeed made three women’s tennis grand slam finals but she won only one. Coco Gauff indeed won the French Open.
Joseph Parker did not end up fighting Daniel Dubois, but Dubois did get smashed by Oleksandr Usyk.
The shocking calls
Scotland did not win the Six Nations. They finished fourth.
The Blues did not go back-to-back in Super Rugby Pacific. They finished sixth.
Otago did not finish seventh in the NPC. They were actually phenomenal, and reached the final. Which was not won by Bay of Plenty but by Canterbury, sadly.
The Black Caps did not fail to reach the semifinals of the Champions Trophy. They reached the final. And India, not Pakistan, won it.
Australia (knocked out in the semifinals) did not win the Women’s ODI World Cup, and the White Ferns did not reach the semifinals.
Plunket Shield champions were Northern (not CD), Ford Trophy champions were Canterbury (not Auckland) and Super Smash men’s champions were CD (not Otago).
Did not go right with the winners of the FA Cup (Crystal Palace, not Chelsea), the Carabao Cup (Newcastle, not Liverpool), the Champions League (PSG, not Barcelona), the Club World Cup (Chelsea, not Real Madrid) or Euro 25 (England’s Lionesses, not Spain).
Failed to pick a single women’s golf major winner, and the United States did not reclaim the Ryder Cup.
The fearless predictions
1 The All Blacks will win all three of their home tests in the Nations Championship but will lose to England at Twickenham. They will also lose to the Wallabies in Sydney, and get beaten 3-1 by South Africa in the Greatest Rivalry series. Five losses sounds bad, but there is precisely zero chance Scott Robertson loses his job. New All Blacks will include Josh Jacomb, Caleb Tangitau, Dylan Pledger and Oli Mathis.
2 The Black Ferns will win nine of their 10 tests, during which time Braxton Sorensen-McGee will score 18 tries. England will win both the men’s and women’s Six Nations.
3 The Chiefs will save us the horror of seeing the Crusaders winning Super Rugby Pacific again. The Highlanders will finish seventh. Matatu will again reach the Aupiki final and again be beaten by the Blues.
4 Hawke’s Bay will win the NPC. Otago will reach the semifinals and hold on to the Ranfurly Shield. Farah Palmer Cup champions will be Canterbury (Premiership) and Otago (Championship). North Otago will qualify for the Meads Cup but Thames Valley will win it, and Whanganui will win the Lochore Cup.
5 India will won the men’s T20 World Cup. The Black Caps will make the semifinals. Curtis Heaphy will make his test debut.
6 Australia will win the women’s T20 World Cup. The White Ferns will not make the semifinals.
7 Men’s domestic cricket champions will be Northern Districts (Plunket Shield), the Central Stags (Ford Trophy) and the Canterbury Kings (Super Smash). The Wellington Blaze will do the women’s HBJ and Super Smash double.
8 The Silver Ferns will win silver at the Commonwealth Games but there will be a change of coach by the end of the year. The Mystics will win the first severely weakened ANZ Premiership, and the Steel will finish third.
9 Speaking of the Commonwealth Games, New Zealand will win 30 medals (nine gold, 13 silver, eight bronze) at the pared-back event.
10 New Zealand will win a record five medals (including a stunning three gold) at the Winter Olympics in Milano Cortina.
11 The Kiwis will shock the Kangaroos in the Rugby League World Cup men’s final. The Australian women will smash the Kiwi Ferns.
12 Spain will beat England in the World Cup final. The All Whites will draw one game and lose two. Arsenal will win the Premier League by at least 12 points, and will also win the Carabao Cup. Manchester City will win the FA Cup, and Inter Milan will win the Champions League.
14 The Broncos will win back-to-back NRL grand finals. The Warriors will finish seventh.
15 Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will each win two men’s grand slams. Aryna Sabalenka (two), Amanda Anisimova and Iga Swiatek will share women’s titles.
16 Men’s golf majors will be won by Scottie Scheffler (two), Tommy Fleetwood and Cameron Young. Women’s majors will be won by Jeeno Thitikul (two), Nelly Korda, Charley Hull and Sei Young Kim.
17 Lando Norris will retain the Formula 1 drivers title but Mercedes will win the constructors crown.
