It is at once both the easiest and the most (potentially) tricky prediction to make.
All Olympic administrators, officials and coaches will eventually face this question: how many medals are we going to win?
Kereyn Smith knows the New Zealand team - and the organisation she heads, the New Zealand Olympic Committee - will, rightly or wrongly, be judged almost solely on how many glittering pieces of metal it brings back from London later this year.
She is ready and open with the answer.
"It's the centenary year of the New Zealand Olympic Committee and we're targeting the 100th medal," Smith said on a recent visit back to Dunedin.
"We've got 90 medals at the moment. That's 89 Summer Games medals and one Winter Olympic medal.
"We believe getting our 100th medal in London is realistic and achievable. But you really don't know.
"The Brits, at home, are in great shape. And the powerhouse European nations will be dominant.
"But we had 22 to 23 athletes or teams in the top three in the world going into 2012. So I don't think it's unrealistic to get our 100th medal."
New Zealand won nine medals (three gold) in Beijing four years ago. It has won 10 or more medals three times: Seoul 1988 (13), Los Angeles 1984 (11) and Barcelona 1992 (10).
The NZOC needed to be accountable for the role it played in New Zealand sport, and medals were the most transparent indication of that, Smith said.
She was in London just a few weeks ago and was excited by what she saw. Venues were established and had been tested.
Now the big question is how the city will cope with logistical issues.
"London presents some big challenges, obviously, around moving people, and security.
"It's a very complex Games.
"There are quite a few sites, for a start. So you've got a sailing village, and a rowing village, and football teams playing around the UK.
"Not many countries have athletes at all of those. We will. The New Zealand team will be approximately one of the top 20 in terms of size. And there are 204 nations. When you think about a country of our size, that's impressive."
Smith thought New Zealand would end up sending about 180 athletes to London, on a par with the record 187-strong team that went to Beijing.
One athlete who will not be seen in a black singlet is 17-year old shot put sensation Jacko Gill, who pulled out after not being included in the original selection, later claiming he had not been made aware of a change in standards until too late.
Smith had just gone overseas when the story broke, but had been involved in the Athletics New Zealand selection process.
"It's a real shame. But I can also understand that they wanted to progress with their planning.
"You can see both sides of the argument. I haven't directly spoken to Jacko or his parents, but our president has.
"The ball is in his court. He has met the standard and, all things being equal, would have been selected. That's a decision they've made in his long-term interests, and I can understand that."
Smith will be in London for the duration (July 27-August 12) of the Games. There will be plenty of meetings, lots of schmoozing with dignitaries and sponsors, and hopefully no major dramas with her team.
Some estimates peg the total cost of the London Games at 12 billion ($NZ24.4 billion).
The cost, the presence of professional athletes, the overtly corporate "relationships" - the Olympics are far removed from the ancient ideals, some might argue.
Smith acknowledges the scale of the Olympics is massive. But she still feels the event plays an important role.
"London is saying the Olympics are important as a transformational tool. In a physical sense, for parts of the East End, but also for their sporting organisations.
"The Olympics can be a huge catalyst for a city. And nations still want to be involved. There are five cities bidding for the 2020 Games."
Smith left Dunedin in 2010, after a decade running the South Island wing of the New Zealand Academy of Sport.
She spent 12 months just trying to get her head around the complexity of running an Olympic Committee.
There are commercial issues, international issues and selection issues; more than 50 sporting codes, each of which has its own wants and needs. And there are no fewer than seven major events in each Olympiad (four-year cycle): Summer and Winter Olympics, youth versions of both, Commonwealth Games, Youth Commonwealth Games, and the Australian Youth Festival.
"When you look at what's involved with each of those events, from dealing with different sports to all the committees, it's very intense.
"Then we also do a lot of work around promoting and inspiring youth related to the Olympic movement."
Smith has 14 fulltime staff, and others are contracted to fill specific roles in various campaigns.
The NZOC's turnover this year will pass $10 million, and it only gets about 5% of its funding from the public sector. Before Beijing, commercial income for the NZOC was about $500,000. This year, it will be more than $5 million.
Kereyn Smith
The facts
Age: 51.
Born: Clinton.
Education: Clinton Primary School, South Otago High School, University of Otago.
Role: New Zealand Olympic Committee secretary-general (2010-).
Previous: New Zealand Academy of Sport (South Island) chief executive (2000-10), Hillary Commission fitness and leisure general manager (1995-2000).
Olympic thoughts
Earliest Olympic memory?
Not my first, but I'll never forget playing netball in Ashburton. They stopped the game to listen to Mark Todd winning one of his golds.
Favourite New Zealand athlete?
Yvette Williams. Her and everything around her legacy. She's one of our greatest Olympians and her achievements were extraordinary.
Three New Zealand dark horses to watch in London?
1. Mark Todd (equestrian): Such a shame about his top horse, though.
2. Ben Fouhy (kayaking): I'll be really interested to see how he goes, after some ups and downs. 3. Andrea Hewitt (triathlon): I'd love to see her do well.
