Seasoned (read ancient) sports reporter Adrian Seconi predicts with absolute certainty how many medals New Zealand will win at the highly anticipated 22nd edition of the Commonwealth Games.
Irrelevant?
What do you mean? Of course it is still relevant.
It is a neat fit between all those World Cups, World Championships, World Series and the Olympics.
As the Commonwealth Games Federation eagerly points out on its website, this is about the "transformative and connecting power of sport" and how the Games have an "enduring commitment to human rights" and are "driven by its values of humanity, equality and destiny".
And we thought it was a colonial relic in existential crisis — an iceberg sitting off the coast of Bermuda. Or as satirist John Oliver memorably put it: "the historic display of a once-mighty nation gathering together the countries it lost and finding a way to lose to them once more".
Hush now. Won’t hear another bad word said about the event no-one wants to host any more.
Medal count
"Humanity, equality and destiny", uh huh. Isn’t it actually all about the medal table and who is on top?
It is a glorious couple of weeks where we bask in the reflected glory of how superior our nation is. New Zealanders prefer alternate facts of course — the per population medal table which will get shared and liked on social media from Kaitaia to Oban and everywhere in between.
Speaking of which, our haul is likely to be between 40 and 50 medals. We nabbed 15 gold medals on the Gold Coast in 2018 and 14 in Glasgow in 2014. Any fewer will be an abject failure and another round of public flagellations will begin immediately. At least that will take the heat off Ian Foster.
But imagine if we measured success not in medals but by the health and social benefits which make sport so valuable for the majority of us. Crazy stuff, that.
Inspiration
When you boil down all the cynicism, you are still left with a nice thick layer of inspiration. It is still us against all them and that remains appealing. And despite our better judgement, we’ll be checking the medal count religiously.
We’ll only exhale once the big bear David Liti has got the enormous amount of weight over his head and secured back-to-back weightlifting gold. We’ll definitely take fewer breaths than Erika Fairweather when she is in the pool, and if a New Zealander or two is in action, we’ll even watch bowls without hitting the snooze button.
The list
The following is an exhaustive list of New Zealanders who will win gold or else.
Tom Walsh will send the shot well past the 22m mark to back up from his gold in 2018.
Paul Coll and Joelle King will squash all-comers in singles and mixed doubles.
Gold all day for Sophie Pascoe in the women’s 100m freestyle S9.
The Seven Sisters have got this.
Olympic bronze medallist Hayden Wilde has cemented himself as the favourite in the triathlon.
Giant weightlifter David Liti has the Commonwealth beat and he will do it smiling.
Will Anton Cooper get one up on his mate Sam Gaze in the mountain biking?
Another list
The following is an exhaustive list of New Zealanders who might win gold or else.
The Silver Ferns finished a disappointing fourth at the last Games. They are good for a podium finish this time.
Lewis Clareburt is in good form in the 400m and 200m individual medley.
Fellow swimmer Andrew Jeffcoat is one of the top backstrokers in the Commonwealth.
Bryony Botha has beaten the mark set by Sarah Ulmer and has developed into a world-class pursuiter.
Hamish Kerr has set a high bar in the high jump.
Boxer Onyx Lye nabbed the New Zealand amateur title in April and hopes the Games will be a springboard for a professional career.
The All Blacks Sevens are in with a decent shout.
Third list down
New Zealand will win 46 medals — about one medal for every 110,000 Kiwis — including 16 golds.
