Probables, possibles and a maybe or two

Have Faith In Me and his All Stars stablemates Lazarus and Smolda are the leading contenders for the NZ Trotting Cup on Tuesday. Photo by Matt Smith.
Have Faith In Me and his All Stars stablemates Lazarus and Smolda are the leading contenders for the NZ Trotting Cup on Tuesday. Photo by Matt Smith.
Fields are still to be confirmed and dresses are still being bought (or cleaned from last year’s carnival), but the favourites are becoming clearer for  New Zealand Cup week in Christchurch. Matt Smith sifts through the nominations and markets to narrow down the hunt for winners.

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 5

$400,000 NZ 2000 Guineas

(group 1)

Last year, Xtravagant blew his rivals off the track in the Two Thousand Guineas. This year doesn't look anywhere near as clearcut, but then again, neither did last year until Xtravagant exploded at the top of the straight.

The Te Akau juggernaut once again has a strong hand in the race with Hall Of Fame and Heroic Valour, but the best form might come out of the Sarten Memorial.

Mongolian Falcon finished second to Ugo Foscolo at Te Rapa, but he hit the line well and tightened in to be favourite when the futures book closed.

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 8

$750,000 NZ Trotting Cup

(group 1)

It is not out of the realms of possibility that this time next week, the headlines will be something along the lines of ''All Stars trifecta in Cup''.

Mark Purdon and Natalie Rasmussen have the top three favourites - Lazarus, Have Faith In Me and Smolda, plus Titan Banner is a handy fourth string option for the stable.

Christen Me and Franco Nelson were two of the losers in the barrier draw yesterday, drawing 11 and 13 respectively, but an economical trip for Franco Nelson still leaves him with a chance.

$170,000 Sires Stakes Final

(group 1)

The All Stars Stables have won the last two editions of this early season 3yr-old classic, and it could be a case of three in a row.

More The Better, You Gotta Have Faith and Ultimate Machete have come back well from their 2yr-old seasons, but the Steven Reid-trained Star Galleria has been outstanding in the North Island.

Mongolian Storm and Tiger Thompson are talented types who can feature with the right run.

$80,000 NZ Trotting FFA

(group 1)

The free-for-all was looking like a reprieve for Monbet's rivals, as he was set to bypass the race in preparation for the Dominion Trot.

That changed last week, but at least the barrier draw gave his rivals a glimmer of hope. The reigning horse of the year drew the outside of the second line, and the promising Marcoola should get a head start on him from the front line behind the mobile arm.

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 9

$230,000 Coupland's Bakeries

Mile (group 2)

The nominations suggest the 2016 edition might not be as strong as previous years', but the market suggests there are plenty of chances to claim the spoil in the South Island's highest-rated open handicap.

Six runners - Thee Auld Floozie, Ringo, Battle Time, Seventh Up, Nomisma and Maybe Miami - were under $10 in the futures market earlier this week. Southern hopes rest with Tommy Tucker, Full Count, and Southland-trained Stokers Rock.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10

$100,000 NZ Greyhound Cup

final (group 1)

The hopefuls were whittled down to a final field of eight after last night's semifinals. Opawa Shackley has been one of the leading middle-distance chasers on the lure despite landing only a second placing last night, whereas American Warrior streeted his rivals by eight lengths.

Berridale Lad, Spud Missile and Zipping Jordan all put their hands up as Cup contenders with heat wins last night.

$30,000 Galaxy Sprint

(group 1)

The phenomenal winning streak ended at 23 for Swimming Goat last week, but the Addington specialist is still the hot favourite to win the country's premier greyhound sprinting race after winning his semifinal in 16.96 seconds. Magic Mike, Wheelchair Norm and Firemans Galaxy loom as the other threats.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 11

$260,000 Dominion Trot

(group 1)

Monbet has dominated betting for the 3200m classic, and rightly so. He was brilliant last season, and his Ashburton Flying Stakes win suggested he will be tough to bowl during this campaign too.

Amaretto Sun has been a front-running revelation this year, while Australian visitor Kyvalley Blur can threaten.

$260,000 NZ Pacing FFA

(group 1)

This race loses a little of its lustre with several runners, such as Smolda and Have Faith In Me, expected to bypass the sprint in favour of a plane trip to Perth for the Interdominions.

Still, the free-for-all has often provided horses who were unlucky on the Tuesday with a belated group 1, such as Tiger Tara last year.

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 12

$300,000 NZ 1000 Guineas

(group 1)

The Matt and Mandy Brown-trained La Diosa has been flying the South Island flag with gusto this season. She will love the 1600m trip on the final day, and will be hard to beat, with luck. Mystery Show, Astara and Glass Slipper represent the biggest threats to a home province victory.

$250,000 New Zealand Cup

(group 3)

Maybe this is the chance for thoroughbreds trained south of the Waitaki River to steal some Cup Week booty. Sureasyouwereborn and Princess Brook are trained at Tapanui and Wingatui respectively, and Southland trainers are potentially represented by Come Fly With Me, Miss Three Stars and Motorboat Mike.

Favouritism is hanging around Maygrove, impressive Riccarton winner Nymph Monte and Pacorus.

Add a Comment