Do not be confused by what everyone has been saying this week. The Highlanders actually cannot lose tonight.
If, as widely expected, they get an old-fashioned tonking from the Chiefs at Forsyth Barr Stadium, they will merely have lived down to the expectations of 99% of New Zealand rugby fans, and they can get on with targeting a couple of wins over Australian teams over the rest of the campaign.
If they produce one of those epic unexpected results ... now we’re talking.
How good for the competition, and how good for the morale of the team and fans, it would be if the Highlanders somehow pull a rabbit out of the hat tonight.
Everyone is prepared for Chiefs superstar Damian McKenzie to be the magician, of course. And let’s be honest: his team should sail to victory tonight.
The Chiefs have won nine from nine, and have clear air at the top of the Super Rugby Pacific table on 40 points. The Highlanders have won three from nine, and teeter anxiously in the eighth and final playoff spot with 15 points.
The Chiefs have made 66 clean breaks (third in the competition). The Highlanders are dead last with 34.
The Chiefs win 89.1% of their tackles (first). The Highlanders go at 83.2% (ninth).
Let’s hit one more for good luck. The Chiefs’ scrum tootles along at 90% success (first) and the Highlanders’ scrum, generally considered a weapon, is at 83.2% (eighth).
Beyond the cold statistics, you look at the respective lineups and you see one absolutely loaded with established and rising stars — all built around the wildly in-form McKenzie — facing one that is a mix of the great (the halfback), the good and the not-yet-convincing, and the result seems a foregone conclusion.
But crazier things have happened.
The Highlanders misfired on their Australian tour and captain Billy Harmon, back on deck this week, is demanding better focus tonight.
"We’ve got to dump that and move on," he said.
"We’re coming up against the best in the business and I think there’s no better opportunity for us to turn our season around and build some momentum into the last leg of the comp.
"Everyone’s got to have their things they are focusing on, and that’s just got to be front of mind. We want to get better, so whatever it is individually you need to do to contribute to the team, that’s where you put your focus."
Harmon acknowledged the Highlanders had to do better at putting in a more polished performance.
"I think a lot of it is around our execution.
"We’ve got skill and size to compete with anyone, and I think our forward pack has been doing an awesome job around that, but we need to execute the little things a bit better and then we’ll be away."
He was well aware the Chiefs presented a formidable challenge.
"They don’t over-complicate things. They just trust in their men getting those post-contact metres, and obviously Damian McKenzie has been one of the best players in the comp around attacking and kicking.
"If we can limit their opportunities to play their game, we’ll be in a good spot."
Harmon’s own battle with All Blacks captain Sam Cane should be a highlight, while the rest of the forwards will obviously be on high alert for the destructive ball-running of Samisoni Taukei’aho.
Brad Weber, a fit-again Anton Lienert Brown and Shaun Stevenson will tear the Highlanders to shreds if they are allowed, so the home team will need big games from the likes of Freddie Burns and Thomas Umaga-Jensen if the miracle is to happen.
Highlanders v Chiefs
Forsyth Barr Stadium, 7.05pm
Highlanders: Sam Gilbert, Connor Garden-Bachop, Fetuli Paea, Thomas Umaga-Jensen, Scott Gregory, Freddie Burns, Aaron Smith, Hugh Renton, Billy Harmon (captain), Shannon Frizell, Will Tucker, Fabian Holland, Jermaine Ainsley, Andrew Makalio, Ethan de Groot. Reserves: Rhys Marshall, Daniel Lienert-Brown, Saula Ma'u, Josh Dickson, Sean Withy, Folau Fakatava, Mitch Hunt, Jona Nareki.
Chiefs: Shaun Stevenson, Emoni Narawa, Daniel Rona, Anton Lienert-Brown, Peniasi Malimali, Damian McKenzie, Brad Weber (co-captain), Luke Jacobson, Sam Cane (co-captain), Pita Gus Sowakula, Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Tupou Vaa’i, George Dyer, Samisoni Taukei’aho, Aidan Ross. Reserves: Bradley Slater, Ollie Norris, John Ryan, Josh Lord, Kaylum Boshier, Cortez Ratima, Bryn Gatland, Alex Nankivell.
