Various scenarios but things not looking good for Highlanders

Elliot Dixon, Ben Smith and Aaron Smith ponder a situation during the Highlanders' match against...
Elliot Dixon, Ben Smith and Aaron Smith ponder a situation during the Highlanders' match against the Chiefs earlier this year. Photo: Getty Images
This is shaping up to be one of the most important weekends of the season for the Highlanders and they are not even playing. The side, sitting in 10th, finds itself in the  position of relying on other teams to perform to get back into the playoff race. Rugby writer Steve Hepburn tries to clear the mud and see what needs to be done.

The dream scenario

First up, the Blues host the Bulls. The Bulls are seventh while the Blues are 13th and need a miracle. The Highlanders want a Blues win - not big but say 22-10.

The Rebels then take on the Waratahs in Melbourne. The Waratahs need to win this but again just by enough to keep the Rebels pointless.

The Crusaders should beat the Chiefs and need to. Surely they will but in this weird season, who knows? The Brumbies are against the Sunwolves and the Brumbies have a soft run home so are too far ahead of the southern men.

The Jaguares are out of the Highlanders equation really so even if they lose against the Reds, which is unlikely, they are well out in front.

The interesting stuff for the Highlanders is in Africa.

The four teams right in front of the Highlanders are all South African outfits - Sharks (33 points), Bulls (32), Lions (30) and Stormers (30). The Highlanders are on 29 points.

The Sharks host the Hurricanes and the men from Wellington need to win for the Highlanders. With some key men back, they will get the job done.

The most important match will be in Johannesburg where the Lions host the Stormers. Is a draw too much to ask for? If not, a convincing win by the Lions may suffice.

The nightmare scenario

When you start relying on other sides, you know there is trouble brewing. When one of those sides is the Blues then yes, it is paddling up creeks with no paddles.

It will most probably rain in Auckland tomorrow night and the match will be a dour forward battle where the big Bulls side will come out on top.

Same thing with the Waratahs. A consistently inconsistent outfit, the Waratahs will face a Rebels outfit which will be right up for the match on its home patch.

In Africa, the Hurricanes play again after a week off and need to start winning. The Sharks are not great at home.

As for the match in Johannesburg, it appears to be a toss of the coin. As long as one team gets no points, the Highlanders will get some help.

So what will probably happen, then, is a 28-25 result with the loser scoring five tries to two and getting two bonus points.

What will probably happen:

Bulls win
Rebels win
Brumbies win
Crusaders win
Reds win
Hurricanes win
Lions win

 

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