The ITM Cup semifinals kick off tonight. Rugby writer Steve Hepburn takes a look at the four games and attempts to pick some winners.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Hawkes Bay v Northland
Where: Napier.
When: Tonight, 7.35pm.
The oil: The Bay has rather limped into the semifinals following a thumping from Manawatu and a last-gasp draw with Southland. But, back on home turf and knowing the Ranfurly Shield is not on the line, the Hawkes Bay side should be fully focused on the match. Needs to cut out the sloppy knock-ons and be more accurate. Northland was tipped to go nowhere this season, but some aggressive loose forwards and solid defence have combined to get the side a couple of upset wins.
Key players: For the home team, first five-eighth Ihaia West is a key, as is loose forward and captain Brendon O'Connor. Northland will rely on first five-eighth Dan Hawkins and the Pryor brothers in the loose.
Tip: Hawkes Bay to do it easily, 32-12.
Manawatu v Southland
Where: Palmerston North.
When: Tomorrow, 2.05pm.
The oil: Manawatu appears to be peaking nicely and has lost just twice this year. Received a good draw and made the most of it. Has a tough set of forwards and a hard-running and speedy set of backs. Will relish playing at home, where it belted Southland a few weeks ago. The Stags scraped into the playoffs but will want to make the most of that good fortune. Much will rest on the shoulders of first five-eighth Lima Sopoaga. Need to be stronger on defence and work hard off the ball.
Key players: Manawatu captain and openside flanker Callum Gibbins is important for the Turbos, while fullback Nehe Milner-Skudder has been elusive all season. Southland will look to Sopoaga and its experienced loose forward trio.
Tip: Manawatu to keep on winning, 29-16.
PREMIERSHIP
Taranaki v Auckland
Where: New Plymouth.
When: Tomorrow, 4.35pm.
The oil: Melbourne Cup winner Kiwi came from Taranaki. He came from second-last at the top of the straight in 1983 in a phenomenal performance to win the cup. The Taranaki rugby side is doing similar things this year. The team which finished second-last in 2013 has been replaced and the results have followed. Auckland has been up and down and has not quite clicked all season. The side likes to wear teams down and will be tough and physical. Will have plenty to play for with stalwarts Gareth Anscombe and Tom McCartney heading offshore.
Key players: Big centre and new Chiefs signing Seta Tamanivalu has been cutting up large for Taranaki all year, while Marty McKenzie has found a new lease on life. The Auckland tight five will want to dominate the game and look to Anscombe to put it in the right places.
Tip: Taranaki to falter: Auckland 22-20.
Tasman v Canterbury
Where: Nelson.
When: Tomorrow, 7.05pm.
The oil: Just two weeks ago, Tasman made mincemeat of its bigger neighbour, winning 38-10. The Tasman side has class all over the park and has enough experience in its team now to survive any tough moments. After three games this season, Canterbury looked invincible, but the wheels have come off in recent weeks. Managed to get back on board with a narrow win over Taranaki last Sunday and will gain confidence from that.
Key players: James Lowe is having a standout season for Tasman, while Jimmy Cowan has been showing why he played 50-plus tests for the All Blacks. Canterbury will look to Tom Taylor, who has had a mixed year, while Matt Todd has been playing to his usual high standard.
Tip: Hard to bet against the red and blacks: Canterbury 29-18.
