Confidence down again

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a ban on MSSAs after the Christchurch terror attacks....
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has apparently not done enough to win over businesses. Photo: NZ Herald
Business and employment confidence has turned sour again for the Coalition Government, a scenario which plagued it for much of last year.

Two separate surveys and a forecast yesterday showed declines in a raft of economic indicators.

The Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index fell 7.1 points to 114.2, with employers much concerned with the effect of wage rises, while employees were concerned there would be no rises.

The ANZ business outlook for March saw most activity indicators ease, with business confidence falling seven points to -38, while those firms' views of their own activity fell five points.

The surveys' findings come against a backdrop of concern on the part of the Reserve Bank over slowing global economic growth, suggesting an increasing likelihood it will cut the official cash rate, now at a record low of 1.75%, to stimulate growth.

Most economists also noted delivery of the Tax Working Group's final report and the Government's recommendations, due in April, might have weighed heavily on some sentiments, which depending on the outcome, could affect property prices, in turn discouraging house building.

ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said residential construction intentions had plummeted to their lowest levels since 2009, led by Auckland, while export intentions were near record lows.

"Cost pressures are reported to be particularly acute in agriculture and construction," she said.

She said most activity indicators had eased slightly for March, consistent with her expectations "the economy is quietly losing steam".

She said the services sector was "particularly pessimistic", while manufacturers' export intentions for agricultural sectors were "trending down", but not at such dire levels.

ASB senior economist Jane Turner said the headline ANZ business confidence survey and firms' own activity expectations remained weak in February and March, dashing hopes that business confidence would improve early this year.

"The New Zealand growth slowdown, and pessimistic business sentiment, comes despite the economy enjoying a number of strong tailwinds, such as high export prices, low interest rates and greater fiscal spending."

She had expected some fall in business confidence in March given the Tax Working Group's report release, where media coverage suggested the business community was subsequently experiencing greater uncertainty, tinged with concern.

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said workers' views on past and future earnings growth were particularly downbeat.

"That stands in contrast with employers' concerns about rising costs and the difficulty of finding workers," he said.

While businesses said it was increasingly difficult to find workers and were concerned about escalating costs as pay rates were bid up, that contrasted with workers becoming less confident pay increases would be forthcoming.

"Which of these narratives prevails will be a key issue for the economy over 2019," Mr Stephens said.

Given the tight labour market, he expected some pick-up in wage growth over the next couple of years, but the survey raised questions about the extent of that rise.

BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said the "cross-currents" of international and domestic risk raised the need for sound economic risk management,

The BusinessNZ planning forecast for the quarter to March highlighted international trading risks, particularly around Brexit and US-China trade, he said.

"The ongoing Brexit saga will affect international growth, even though NZ, compared with decades ago, when Britain took nearly all the country's agricultural produce, has considerably expanded its export markets."

In the US, the prolonged and contentious trade dispute with China continued with no certainty of when, or even if, a breakthrough would be achieved.

"Domestic risk factors include concerns over a capital gains tax, employment relations changes, skill shortages and Reserve Bank capital requirement proposals that would increase the cost of capital," Mr Hope said.

However, Mr Hope noted the Government's fiscal position was "sound" and the outlook for growth until 2021, at just under 3%, was "is reasonably strong".

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