Confidence drives land prices

Dairy-aligned property values have been described as ''defying gravity'' despite falling dairy prices.

Over the first five months of 2014-15, dairy land prices had risen by 20% compared with the corresponding period the previous year.

While a strong appetite to invest in agriculture still prevailed, continuing doubt around returns might test that further, PGG Wrightson Real Estate general manager Peter Newbold said.

Last week, Fonterra slashed its forecast milk price from $5.30 to $4.70, with the drop from last season's $8.40 price equating to a blow of more than $6 billion to New Zealand's economy.

Waikato generally led the country on price and more than one dairy farm had sold in the region recently for about $80,000 a hectare, excluding dairy company shares. Southland values for upper end dairy property were about $40,000 to $47,000.

Some market signs indicated an increase in listings through the summer though it was still too early to say that would occur, Mr Newbold said.

It seemed the majority of activity was being driven by existing farmers within a region buying adjoining blocks to expand, ANZ's latest Agri Focus said.

That confidence was also reflected in strong prices for dairy support and arable land. Both finishing and arable land values had been pushed to new highs in recent months.

Only grazing properties had shown a price decline, which was surprising given the better price outlook for meat and fibre farmers, the report said.

Given dairy farmers seemed to be doing the majority of the buying, it seemed unlikely dairy-aligned land values would move too much higher as cash flow tightened in 2015.

But given the confidence being shown, it seemed equally unlikely they would get any cheaper, despite a lower farm-gate price and very stretched valuation measurements.

Data released by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand yesterday showed there were 40 fewer farm sales for the three months ended November, than for the corresponding period last year.

The median price per hectare for all farms sold in the three months was $29,834 compared with $24,056 last year.

There was a slow market in Otago with a lack of dairy influence on finishing and grazing country, and limited inquiry generally, but a solid market in Southland, REINZ rural spokesman Brian Peacocke said.

Meanwhile, the number of dairy cattle in New Zealand has continued to rise, reaching 6.7 million at the end of June, figures released by Statistics New Zealand showed.

Sheep, beef and deer numbers fell during the same period, with sheep dropping 1.2 million to 29.6 million.

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