Export and tourism on earnings lift

Annual meetings held this week had provided some pleasant surprises for investors and the market, Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said yesterday.

Annual meetings had become an important forum where companies could provide guidance.

It used to be financial results were the main forum but companies were now tied to meeting their legislative obligations.

''Annual meetings now provide some colour and clarity about the future,'' Mr Timms said.

The larger companies to take the eye of Mr Timms included Air New Zealand, Port of Tauranga and Auckland International Airport.

The good news released at those companies' annual meetings had been reflected in the rise of their share prices, coupled with a strong lift in the NZX this week.

One of the disappointments had been Sky Television when it provided confirmation of what most of the market suspected, he said.

Sky issued weak 2016 guidance, suggesting a mid-point 7% operating earnings downgrade.

The key points appeared to be higher near-term set-up costs of new online services relative to their revenue contribution and, most likely, an appropriately cautious stance on post Rugby World Cup churn for its traditional subscriber base.

''Sky normally experiences its highest churn period post the Rugby World Cup. As a result, we have rebased our earnings estimates 10% lower and share target price down 13% to $5.10.''

There had been criticism of the deals being offered to attract new subscribers and Mr Timms said the old business adage of it being easier to look after existing clients than secure a new one should be considered by Sky.

Sky TV was a stock to avoid, Craigs analyst Mark Lister said.

Looking at Air NZ, Auckland International Airport and Port of Tauranga, Mr Timms said the airline and New Zealand's largest airport were the catalysts for attracting more tourists to New Zealand.

The fall in the value of the New Zealand dollar should also help.

Port of Tauranga was often overlooked because investors did not realise how significant the company had become in the shipping industry.

It had 50% shares in North Port and Prime Port Timaru, and inland ports, which all added up to getting product out of New Zealand.

The weakening currency would help lift exports and Port of Tauranga was in a prime position to take advantage of any increase, he said.

However, the work on making companies perform better started back in 2007-08 when managers decided to get themselves in the best possible position after the global financial crisis.

''They made the hard calls, reduced debt and started running efficiently. They were then able to benefit from the opportunities that help their business.''

 


Guidance

• Vector: Adjusted operating earnings for the 2016 financial year ranging from $605million to $620million. The Auckland gas and electricity distribution monopoly will be among the first customers in the world to take delivery of Tesla's home and business batteries that store home-generated solar and wind power.

Auckland International Airport: The 2016 reported profit of between $183million and $191million is expected. Capital expenditure guidance lifted to $230million to $260million, including a jump in aeronautical capex from $100million to $135million.

Port of Tauranga: Expecting full-year earnings in 2016 similar to last year. This suggests risk to market expectations which currently imply 4% growth in reported profit.

 Sky Television: The profit is expected to be between $153million and $158million in the year ending June 30, 2016, below the $172million it reported this year. Sales are expected to be between $928million and $938million, little changed from $928million in 2015, while capital expenditure will increase to between $125million and $130million, from this year's $115million.


 

 

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