The BNZ Confidence Index was at a record high at the end of July, but proof that confidence has shifted into the labour market will have to wait until tomorrow.
Statistics New Zealand will publish all three main labour market reports in one go tomorrow. The Household Labour Force Survey, the Quarterly Employment Survey and the Labour Cost Index will all be released at 10.45am rather than the labour force survey coming out on a Thursday, two days later than the others.
Westpac senior economist Felix Delbruck said it was a good move by Statistics NZ.
''Previously, the quarterly survey and wage data always felt like a teaser and Thursday's labour force survey became the 'last word' on the labour market.
"Releasing the data together will encourage a more holistic assessment. But it also raises the risk of information overload and greater market volatility on the day.''
In his view, the markets would focus even more on the labour force survey headlines than usual, Mr Delbruck said.
If forecasts held true, there should be very little market response, although the labour force survey was notorious for throwing ''curve balls'', he said.
BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander said the monthly survey elicited 763 responses last week and a record net 59% of respondents expected the New Zealand economy would be in better shape in a year's time than it was now.
The result was consistent with other less up-to-date measures showing ''very positive'' business sentiments.
Some of the other surveys also showed high levels of business investment and employment intentions.
''Our survey does not directly gather such information but, instead, we give respondents the opportunity to tell us how things are in their particular sector,'' he said.
The number of people responding to the July survey was more than 120 ahead of June and more than double those responding in the same period last year. The survey also asked how people felt about house prices rising.
Mr Alexander said while policy-makers and buyers fretted about house prices rising, the bulk of people on average appeared increasingly happy with the situation.
A net 17% of the 763 respondents said they were happy house prices were rising. Just 24% were unhappy and the net happiness rating was up from 7% in June and zero in May.
''The results suggest that electoral support for radical policies aimed at curbing house prices could be minimal.''
Mr Delbruck said Westpac economists would focus on the unemployment rate as it was the major ''value-added'' data from the labour force survey. The quarterly survey excluded parts of the economy, notably agriculture, and it would not reflect the recent drought.
''But it's been more stable than the labour force survey recently, and more in tune with other economic indicators. In our view, it's an important guide to near-term economic activity. We expect to see moderate job growth.''
The Labour Cost Index gave the cleanest read of wage inflation.
At a glance
• BNZ confidence at record high.
• Economy expected to be in better shape next year.
• Increasing number of people happy with rising house prices.
• All labour market data out tomorrow.
Unemployment expected to rise slightly.
