NZ 'past the worst' of recession

Tony Conroy
Tony Conroy
A round of company annual meetings this week will be followed closely by financial markets, particularly investors who have seen their wealth disappear as reported earnings took a beating during the recession.

New Zealand's main reporting season is still two weeks way with Rakon the first major company to report on August 11.

Across the Tasman, Alesco Corporation today starts Australia's reporting season along with GUD Holdings, the distributor of filtration units and water pumps to the rural sector.

The first major company to report in Australia will be Axa, the provider of insurance, savings products and superannuation in Australia, New Zealand and Asia, on August 5.

But while investors await the company results to get an indication of the likelihood of a recovery in the fortunes of listed corporates, the speeches given this week by the chairmen and women of listed companies will give the first hint of good news to come.

Although most of an annual meeting agenda is based on the past year, the outlook in the chairman's address usually considers the future.

Forsyth Barr broker Tony Conroy said yesterday those outlooks would be what he would watch this week.

"They will give their forecasts and then with the continuous disclosure regime, they then have to let the market know of any major variance."

Investor confidence improved last week with SkyCity Entertainment and Delegats telling the market their profits would be better than previously thought, Mr Conroy said.

United States markets had been up in recent weeks before pulling back as investors got nervous before the start of the major reporting season.

Once the first results were out of the way, the market had "roared away" on better-than-expected outlooks, Mr Conroy said.

"There seems to be a consensus that we are past the worst of the recession."

Rising unemployment would still prove a problem in New Zealand, and other countries, as it always lagged the rest of the economy.

However, markets had already priced that into company earnings and the focus was on further ahead in the cycle, he said.

Annual meetings this week include: Methven Ltd and National Property Trust, today; Mainfreight Ltd, TrustPower, on Thursday; Kermadec Property Fund and Comvita, on Friday.

Other indicators to watch this week for signs of recovery are the National Bank business outlook tomorrow and the Reserve Bank's official cash rate decision on Thursday.

ANZ-National Bank chief economist Cameron Bagrie said the business outlook survey for July would be important as it provided a good lead gauge on the economy.

"The biggest focus will be on whether the recent improving trend in sentiment has been maintained," Mr Bagrie said.

The Reserve Bank is expected to keep its official cash rate at 2.5% but may rule out any further falls as it continues to believe the recovery is under way.

Today, the June merchandise figures are released.

Westpac is forecasting the trade balance to remain in surplus, though less impressively than in recent months, due to softer dairy export prices and a gradual pick-up in import demand.

Building consents, out tomorrow, might be lower in June due to the volatile apartment component.

However, Westpac economists were expecting the trend to improve during the rest of the year as rising net migration exacerbated an emerging shortage of housing.

The London Stock Exchange races an onslaught of corporate earnings this week, along with two key economic indices.

The Confederation of British Industry is due to release data on consumer spending which should indicate a modest improvement in July as households took advantage of summer sales.

In company news, oil giants BP and Shell reported their quarterly results on Wednesday and Friday (NZ time) respectively.

British Airways, which is locked in difficult salary negotiations with its unions, will release its data on Friday.

Low-cost carrier Ryanair reports today.

Other leading companies to publish results this week are publisher Pearson and plumbing supplies group Wolseley, gas group BG, maintenance products company Reckitt Benckiser and confectionery Cadbury.

Thursday will be a heavy day with results expected from Rolls-Royce, pharmaceutical group AstraZeneca, tobacco giant BAT, telephone operator BT and satellite broadcaster BSkyB.

Mining company Anglo American will report on Friday.

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