Steady growth overall expected from reporting

Positive earnings-per-share growth is expected from 26 of 41 companies in the forthcoming...
Positive earnings-per-share growth is expected from 26 of 41 companies in the forthcoming reporting season. PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
The coming reporting season on the NZX is expected to reflect "steady growth forecasts" for earnings per share, but that does not translate to all shares in the retail and telco sectors.

The season starts in earnest next week and runs through to the last week of March as 41 companies report mainly their interim, half-year results.

Reports are scheduled next week from Contact Energy, South Port in Bluff, casino and hotel operator SkyCity, Skellerup Holdings, the a2 Milk Company and the NZX itself.

Forsyth Barr broker Suzanne Kinnaird was forecasting "steady" earnings-per-share growth, of more than 6.6% at aggregated level and more than 5.5% at the median level, from the reporting season.

"There's solid support from the utilities and food, beverages and agriculture sectors. However, retail and telecommunications have negative or low growth forecast," she said.

Growth was reasonably consistent from revenue then to earnings per share, at both the aggregated and median levels, she said.

"This is the larger of the quarterly reporting seasons with 41 companies reporting."

She said 26 companies were forecast to have positive earnings-per-share growth versus 14 companies with a negative growth forecast. One company was deemed not applicable.

Mrs Kinnaird said 11 companies were expected to deliver normalised earnings-per-share growth of more than 10%, including currently "outperform"-rated companies Metlifecare and the a2 Milk Company.

She said a2 Milk had provided a recent update confirming brand momentum remained strong, and was forecasting earnings before interest and tax and normalised after-tax profit would both be about 43%.

"We expect to see double-digit first-half 2019 revenue growth and earnings leverage," she said.

Mrs Kinnaird wanted to see updated market share insights, particularly in China, progress in the US and any update on new products or markets a2 Milk was looking into.

She said Metlifecare was expected to deliver earnings before interest and tax and normalised after-tax profit growth at, respectively, 11.1% and 9.8%.

"We're expecting a steady result with relatively flat care and management fee earnings, boosted by sales and new sales gains," she said.

Also of interest in the reporting would be Metlifecare's development progress and re-evaluations of its assets.

Other companies to watch and expected to surprise positively included Vector, The Warehouse Group, Sky TV and Steel & Tube.

However, on the negative ledger and expected to deliver negative earnings-per-share growth were several companies, in a range of -3% growth to as much as -10%.

Those companies included Kathmandu, NZX, Fonterra, Air New Zealand, Tourism Holdings and Vital Healthcare.

In retail, Michael Hill Jeweller was picked to see revenue decline by just under 10% on a year ago and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation down by as much as 30%.

"There's a high level of uncertainty around the first-half 2019 margins with the impact of the new pricing strategy and sharply higher corporate costs," Mrs Kinnaird said.

She noted Chorus could be down more than 50% in earnings per share, which was amplified from coming off a low base and rising depreciation and interest expenses as the company rolled out its fibre network.

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