New Zealand achieved a small trade surplus in February by the skin of its teeth, ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said yesterday.
Reviewing Statistics New Zealand's trade figures, Mr Tuffley said the $50 million trade surplus was the second in a row, following a run of six consecutive deficits.
Most of the weaker result was due to lower-than-expected dairy export values.
Export values were down about 3% on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Both dairy export volumes and prices fell 5% where ASB expected both to post small rises, he said.
''We put this down to volatility and expect dairy export values to rebound in March.''
Dairy trade data usually reflected dairy auction prices with about a three-month lag.
In December, dairy auction prices had started to stabilise.
In contrast, import values were in line with expectations, rising nearly 6% for the month on a seasonally-adjusted basis - with the strength broad based, Mr Tuffley said.
In February, consumption goods, machinery and plant and passenger cars were all up more than 10% on the previous corresponding period.
Petroleum imports were low for the second consecutive month, reflecting the sharp oil price falls.
January and February petroleum import values were about 34% lower than for the same months a year ago.
''Over the remainder of the first half of 2015, we expect the trade balance to trend sideways as low oil prices and recovering dairy prices balance otherwise growing import values.''
Later in the year, growing import demand - reflecting solid domestic activity - was expected to more than offset recovering dairy export prices and lead to a wider trade deficit, he said.
