In a statement this afternoon, the Ministry of Health said nationally there were 6232 community cases and 769 current hospitalisations.
The seven-day rolling average of community case numbers today is 7405. This is a drop from last week's average of 8703.
The latest Ministry of Health figures come as experts say our latest wave of Covid-19 infections was smaller than it could've been, and has now likely passed its peak - with hybrid immunity to thank.
David Welch, Jemma Geoghegan and Michael Plank wrote about the steadily falling seven-day rolling average of new daily cases.
They're down from a peak of around 10,000 on July 15 to just under 7800 on Thursday, they wrote in The Conversation, a not-for-profit online publishing platform.
There were 7605 new cases yesterday, among 53,301 active Covid cases in the community.
"The strength of hybrid immunity induced by high vaccination rates and the large and relatively recent BA.2 wave in Aotearoa likely means this BA.5 wave is smaller than it would have been otherwise," the experts wrote.
Yet to be peer-reviewed new evidence from Qatar and Denmark suggested those who'd previously been infected with the Omicron variant had relatively strong immunity against BA.5.
"Qatar and Denmark both have highly vaccinated populations and this is evidence of the strength of hybrid immunity."
Welch and Geoghegan are both senior university lecturers, with Welch doing Covid-19 modelling and genomic analysis, and Geoghegan an associate scientist at ESR. Plank is a professor in applied mathematics at the University of Canterbury.
The true number of infections was likely to be significantly higher - not everyone tests when unwell - but there was no reason to think testing has dropped off significantly in the past two weeks, or even in the past few months, they wrote.
"The amount of virus being detected in wastewater has also decreased in the past week … this means the fall in cases is likely to be real."
The latest Covid-19 wave had also passed with hospitalisations at the lower end of what was originally expected.
There were 799 people in hospital with the virus yesterday, including 25 in intensive care units. A week earlier those numbers were 759 and 13.
Earlier this week, outgoing director general of health Ashley Bloomfield - whose last day in the job was yesterday - said Covid hospitalisation rates continued to stay steady or increase.
While there was a chance they could still rise to over 1000, the revised peak was 850, which we came close to last weekend, he said.
Hospitalisations typically lag behind cases by a week or two, Welch, Geoghegan and Plank wrote.
"Consistent with this pattern, the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 has recently shown signs of levelling off. It will probably start to fall in the coming week."
Most importantly, cases have been falling in all age groups - including over-70s, which was particularly good news.
"The increase in case rates in older age groups had been a key driver of the steep rise in hospitalisations and deaths in this wave."
Deaths attributable to Covid-19 are only reported by the Ministry on weekdays.
The seven-day rolling average of hospitalisations is 797, up from 764 this time last week.
Hospitalisations
Total number 769: Northland: 15; Waitematā: 75; Counties Manukau: 51; Auckland: 140; Waikato: 97; Bay of Plenty: 34; Lakes: 15; Hawke’s Bay: 37; MidCentral: 48; Whanganui: 14; Taranaki: 18; Tairawhiti: 3; Wairarapa: 6; Capital & Coast/Hutt: 29; Nelson Marlborough: 15; Canterbury/West Coast: 113; South Canterbury: 16; Southern: 43.
Eighteen people are being treated in intensive care or a high-dependency unit.
- Additional reporting ODT
