New University of Otago research has revealed we would likely survive the initial impacts, but we would quickly succumb and die because of a lack of important life-saving medications.
Public health senior researcher Prof Nick Wilson, of Wellington, said none of the 10 most widely prescribed medicines for acute medical conditions in New Zealand, were able to be made here.
"So, once stocks of imported medicines had been exhausted in a post-catastrophe situation, there would likely be increased deaths from infections, heart disease, stroke and asthma."
The medicines examined in the study were pain reliever paracetamol and anti-inflammatory ibuprofen; omeprazole for acute gastritis and gastric ulcers; the antibiotic amoxicillin for severe bacterial pneumonia; aspirin for managing strokes and heart attacks; metoprolol to control blood pressure; salbutamol for acute asthma attacks; the steroid prednisone for severe allergic reactions; the antihistamine cetirizine; and amlodipine for managing angina.
He said they were unable to be made in New Zealand because of a lack of access to the key ingredients, many of which required petrochemical refining which New Zealand was no longer able to do since the Marsden Point oil refinery was closed in 2022.
Modern pharmaceutical manufacturing was also highly dependent on complex industrial infrastructure, which New Zealand was unable to do at scale.
Prof Wilson said global manufacturing of medicines had now become dependent on just a few countries.
The research showed a catastrophic event in the northern hemisphere would likely cause a collapse in international trade, which would lead to critical shortages of imported medicines.
"New Zealand’s current pharmaceutical industry is focused on secondary manufacturing and formulation, the packaging of imported active ingredients, and quality control and testing."
He said the country could potentially build new infrastructure to produce some of the ingredients needed for medicines, by modifying the wood pyrolysis plant in Timaru to produce phenols and furans; or the Glenbrook steel plant to produce benzene/phenol from coke gas.
"A micro-refinery could also be built for oil extracted in Taranaki, or from coal tar from West Coast coal mines.
"But all of these options would be expensive and challenging to undertake in a crisis situation."
Study co-author Dr Matt Boyd said New Zealand could also consider producing natural alternatives to some medicines, like using salicylic acid from the bark of willow trees as an alternative to aspirin, growing opium poppies to make morphine and codeine, or by using hormones derived from livestock to produce insulin.
However, Prof Wilson believed the most sensible option was for the New Zealand and Australian governments to join forces to produce and trade key pharmaceuticals.
"Australia still has petrochemical refining, produces some of its own medicines, and is a major global producer of legal morphine from opium poppies.
"The New Zealand government could contribute funding towards medicines production in Australia, but it could also help ensure the viability of post-catastrophe transtasman trade by using locally produced biofuel to keep cargo ships running."
