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Less than seven weeks out from election day, the Herald-compiled poll of polls shows support for National still rising, albeit slowly.
The current governing party would be able to rule alone with a comfortable 13-seat majority if the poll of polls calculations were duplicated on election day.
A time-weighted rolling average of the country's main polls shows support for National slowly rising to 55% this month, compared with close to 54% last month and 52.5% in July.
Labour's rolling average has slid by nearly five percentage points since July to just over 28%.
The drop would see Labour's caucus reduced from 42 MPs to 35, thereby putting several who do not hold an electorate seat in danger of not getting back in via their list ranking.
Assuming Labour does not lose any electorates it now holds, Steve Chadwick, Stuart Nash and Rick Barker would lose their seats.
In contrast, National would bring in an extra 10 MPs, taking the caucus to 68.
The poll of polls takes in results from the Herald-DigiPoll survey, the One News-Colmar Brunton poll, the 3News-Reid Research survey, the Roy Morgan Research poll and the Fairfax Media-Research International poll.
- The New Zealand Herald