The latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll - the first the firm has conducted since the budget - sees Labour leapfrog National in popularity and parties outside parliament making slight gains.
Party vote:
Labour: 34.8 percent, up 1.6 percentage points (44 seats)
National: 33.5 percent, down 1.1 (42 seats)
ACT: 9.1 percent, down 0.4 (12 seats)
Greens: 8.2 percent, down 0.9 (10 seats)
NZ First: 6.1 percent, down 1.3 (8 seats)
Te Pāti Māori: 3.3 percent, down 0.6 (6 seats)
The centre-right would have a combined 62 seats, down one seat from the previous poll. The centre-left is up two seats to 60.
For the minor parties, TOP is on 1.8 percent (up 1.3 percentage point), Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.1 percent (up 0.7 points), New Conservatives are on 0.7 percent (up 0.7 points) and Vision NZ on 0.6 percent (up 0.2 points).
Preferred prime minister:
In the preferred prime minister stakes, both Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins have taken hits, with Luxon staying slightly ahead of Hipkins.
Christopher Luxon: 20.3 percent, down 4.2 percentage points
Chris Hipkins: 18.5 percent, down 1.5 points
Winston Peters: 8.0 percent, down 0.1 points
David Seymour: 6.0 percent, down 0.7 points
Chlöe Swarbrick: 5.6 percent, up 0.6 points
Luxon is down 4.2 points from last month to 20.3 percent, while Hipkins is down 1.5 points to 18.5 percent.
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers' Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders, weighted to the overall adult population.
It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Saturday, June 7 and Monday, June 9 2025. It has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand, which has resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body.
Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methodologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.
