Rate of departure abates

The exodus from Christchurch is continuing, although the departure rate is gradually slowing.

A net 607 more Cantabrians redirected their mail to other parts of the country or overseas in the seven months to the end of January, compared with 1538 in the 12 months before that.

Statistics NZ estimated a net 7600 people left the region in the 12 months to last Junemost of them in the last four months of that period after the February 22 quake.

If the population loss continued in the same ratio to mail redirections, about 3000 more people might have left in the past seven months.

The net movement overseas from Canterbury was 2236 in the first half of last year and 1144 in the second half.

Wellington demographer James Newell said the total population loss in the full year to this June could be about the same as for the year to last June.

"Really, the story is that the earthquake refugee flight is going to be over two or three years," he said.

"So, you'll get something of the same order [as the year to last June] in the June 2012 year, and something a bit less in the June 2013 year."

He expects the exodus to be offset eventually by an inflow of construction workers, but there is no sign of a turnaround in the mail redirections yet.

They have shown a net outflow from Canterbury in every month since the first earthquake in September 2010, except for January and February last year.

Redirections to other parts of the country spiked at a net outflow of 806 last March, but fell back quickly and have been below 100 a month in every month since June except for August and December, when families appear to have moved at the end of school terms.

Unusually, the exodus has been dominated by families with young children instead of the usual Kiwi outflow of young single adults.

Total Canterbury school enrolments dropped by 3300, or 3.6%, in the year to last July.

The Education Ministry listed 3039 school pupils from Christchurch, Waimakariri and Selwyn still enrolled outside those districts on November 9.

Statistics NZ said the total net exodus of 7600 Cantabrians in the year to last June was partly offset by 2600 more births than deaths, producing a net population loss of 5000 (0.9%).

The exodus of a further 3000 people since June, combined with about 1500 more births than deaths in that period, suggests that the region's population may have shrunk by about 6500 people, or 1.1%, since June 2010.

 - Simon Collins

 

 

 

 

 

Add a Comment