It was always a case of when rather than if. As we know all too well from recent experience, a global pandemic affects every corner of the planet. It is even more likely to reach New Zealand when its vector is seabirds — migratory animals which are plentiful on our shores and which pay no respect to the shutting down of international air routes. New Zealand’s first case of H5N1 — the latest strain of avian influenza — was reported late on Wednesday after a sick brown skua found on a beach in Wellington returned a positive test. A northern giant petrel tested positive for the H5N1 bird flu, in Esperance, Australia. PHOTO: REUTERS At this stage, concerns have been heightened by a single bird. One case does not necessarily mean bird flu is already spreading through the country, but it is certainly a harbinger. Again, Covid-19 gives us the experience to educate what happens next. However, some things will be different. Birds won’t be social distancing, wearing masks or queuing up for vaccinations. Nor will they be limiting the size of gatherings or require vaccine passes to enter rookeries and nesting sites. The scale of fatalities will likely be large, something New Zealanders will find tough to stomach. Kiwis love their birds, as the popularity of the annual Bird of the Year competition demonstrates. Seeing our feathered friends suffer will not be pleasant, nor will be the toll when the disease leaps from the wild bird population to the domestic one. Otago has recent experience of this, when the H7N6 subtype of avian influenza was detected on a chicken farm just north of Dunedin. That sparked wholesale slaughter of the infected birds, a measure which succeeded in stopping the spread of the disease in its tracks. Such measures may work for a while with H5N1, but it is likely that the sheer scale and spreadability of the disease — this strain spreads more easily between wild birds — means containment measures will soon be overwhelmed. New Zealand does have some advantages on its side, though. The virus first started cutting its swathe through birdlife in the northern hemisphere in 2020, and Australia has been stricken before New Zealand. We know wild birds are at considerable risk, as are chickens, ducks and turkeys. But we also know both what has been effective and what has not overseas, and we also know what our neighbours are doing and can tie in with their efforts. Given the number of wild species which fly across the Tasman, that is simple common sense. Biosecurity and Ministry for Primary Industries staff have also had time to prepare for the arrival of the disease in New Zealand, and the relevant politicians have assured us plans are in place for an effective response and are ready to be rolled out. Let us hope that they are correct and that they work as planned. The Department of Conservation has begun vaccinating some of the country’s critically endangered birds against H5N1 and poultry farmers have also already taken precautions. While we know what the disease will do to the bird population, the great unknown is how it will affect humans. Certainly, there will be an economic and an opportunity cost. Poultry farmers will be on tenterhooks, as will cagebird fanciers. Consumers may well find that chicken becomes a rarity on dinner tables and menus. Poultry and eggs remained safe to eat if cooked, but whether people will be willing to take what they might perceive to be a risk — or whether flocks remain sizable enough for current stock levels and demand to be met — remain unanswered questions. Thankfully, H5N1 is not likely to bring with it a human health cost. Overseas experience has been that a person has to have had extensive contact with diseased birds to contract the illness, and that if they are that unfortunate that it is not then easily transmitted to another person. But the cost to birds — be they food animals, pets or in the wild — will be high. It is now up to us humans to keep that toll as low as possible.
