It is hard to keep up. A day after saying he would introduce a fee for ships going through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for safe passage, United States President Donald Trump has backed down. Nobody, including the president, was clear about how that plan which would have charged 20% of the value of vessels’ cargo was going to work. It went against his previously expressed view against tolling in the strait prompted an international outcry and an oil price spike. Unsurprisingly, the infamously mercurial Mr Trump changed his tune, but naturally conveyed his new set of confused messaging about offering secure passage as a triumph. Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June, 2026. Photo: Reuters/Stringer/File Photo He said that after ‘‘highly productive conversations’’ with Middle East leadership, he had decided to ‘‘replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States’’. ‘‘Those Investments will be MASSIVE but, at the same time, extraordinarily good for them, and their future.’’ We would be surprised if any of the Gulf States see it quite that way and there is uncertainty about where this latest flawed thought leaves other countries’ shipping plans. What is known is that the strait blockade is back, the US is stepping up its attacks on Iran, oil prices are heading in the wrong direction, and any hopes we might be sailing to smoother economic waters internationally seem forlorn. This is not good news for New Zealand. As the former manager at Marsden Point Refinery David Keat points out, while during the pause in fighting some oil tankers got through the strait, oil is not the only commodity being disrupted. Other supplies including fertiliser, other agricultural goods and helium (used in microchip production and Magnetic Resonance Imaging machines) were affected. He told RNZ the situation was ‘‘more precarious’’ for the global economy than when the war started at the end of February because then there were reserves of oil around the world. Most of that was now gone, and although there might not be a worry about the physical supply to New Zealand short-term, it would not take much to ‘‘tip things over the edge’’ which could result in a very high price spike. New Zealanders who have been struggling for several years with the cost of living will be understandably nervous about the latest developments and their possible impact on all sorts of prices. We expect the government will try to put a brave face on the latest uncertainty, but it will not be helping confidence about any faltering steps towards an upturn in the economy. Whether it will result in rethinking around urgent measures to decrease our reliance on oil and shore up our home-grown industries including food processing and timber production remains to be seen. Paul Henry gamble Broadcaster Paul Henry’s addition to Act New Zealand’s line-up of candidates in this year’s election has created a buzz for the party which has been flat-lining in the polls. But the party is taking a gamble on Mr Henry. Having a high profile and colourfully espousing views which accord with those of a party is not the same as the day-to-day work of a member of parliament. Mr Henry has already expressed a wish to be a cabinet minister, obviously not keen to do the hard yards as a backbencher, or what he called ‘‘listening to a bunch of twats’’ carping on late at night in the House of Representatives. While some people may see him as entertaining and inserting a breath of fresh air into the election campaign, others will see him as another tedious loud and divisive force, much like Shane Jones. Some may also question whether another rich man who has spent much time overseas understands what life is like for most people in New Zealand. It is difficult to see Mr Henry staying the course and being a team player. At the announcement of his candidature he already seemed to be making up policy on the hoof. Act has been a disciplined unit in Parliament under David Seymour’s leadership, but he has not been tested by an ego as big as Mr Henry’s. It may well end in tears.
