Catabingo, the game no-one wants to play

How's the gloom? How’s the foreboding?

Do you feel that the ice is thin, that one misstep could drop us all into the cold black waters of catastrophe?

You do? Then it’s time for the 2026 edition of Catabingo, the global disaster game that all the family can play.

The rules could not be simpler. I lay out a series of potential catastrophes. You and your loved ones rank them in order of probability and then wait to see whose prediction is closest to reality.

It’s educational, entertaining and your chance to get in on history before it happens.

There are no prizes. Your reward for getting it right is to sit among the ruins smugly polishing a hypothetical medal for 20/20 foresight. Ready? Let’s play.

Scenario 1. Ice agents in Minneapolis murder another bystander. Half the city turns out in protest. Ice agents assail the mob with the usual paraphernalia and barbarity. The Governor of Minnesota sends in the National Guard to keep peace. Ice agents assail the National Guard with the usual paraphernalia and barbarity. The National Guard assail back. Ice open fire.

President Trump sends in the federal troops. Blue states send in reinforcement National Guard units. Whoa, the Second American Civil War is under way.

Scenario 2. Several African teams travelling to the Football World Cup are denied entry to the United States. All African, European and South American teams — except Venezuela — withdraw from the tournament in solidarity and a rival competition is hastily organised across Africa with the final to be played in Kinshasa. Meanwhile, the United States beat Venezuela 6-0 in the final of the World Cup proper with all six being own goals. Trump presents the trophy and holds it aloft to the applause of both teams, then presses a ceremonial button to commence the celebratory bombing of Kinshasa.

Scenario 3. Taking advantage of the Second American Civil War, Russia invades Iceland. Iceland is a member of Nato and has a Coastguard, but no army, navy or air force. The first hypersonic missile takes out the Coastguard. Reykjavik issues a red alert to all Nato members. Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Finland immediately scramble fighter jets and introduce conscription.

All other European states stress that Iceland’s call is important to them but they are currently experiencing higher than normal call volumes. The US does not answer the phone. Whoa, the first Russo-Baltic War is under way.

Scenario 4. Across the western world Gen Z mobilises in protest against house prices, global warming and the gulf between rich and poor. In Lyttelton, several thousand youngsters overwhelm security and swarm aboard a superyacht belonging to the owner of a Wall St hedge fund, who escapes in the on-board helicopter. The youngsters take the captain hostage but fail to agree on a ransom demand. There’s nothing they really want.

They have a nice time inventing games with the ship’s electronic navigation systems but they miss mum and dad and the washing machine and the regular meals and they are on the point of quietly disembarking and going home when the privately-owned laser-directed ballistic missile arrives at a speed of 24,000kmh. The hedge-fund manager buys a bigger yacht.

Scenario 5. Taking advantage of the Second American Civil War, China invades Taiwan. Taiwan calls on the western democracies to come to its aid but at that moment in the western democracies all their operators are helping other allies and the wait time will be approximately until it’s too late.

The United Nations prepares a strongly-worded denunciation of Chinese aggression which is vetoed by China, the Russian Federation and Fiji. The Japanese parliament votes to treble defence spending.

Scenario 6. A heatwave in Perth leads to the collapse of the city’s electricity grid, wild fires tear through the vineyards of South Australia, the Murray River system dries up, Queensland undergoes catastrophic flooding, Northland and the Coromandel are battered by a succession of cyclones.

The entire kiwifruit harvest is lost in Te Puke, and a spokesperson for the Invercargill real estate agents association said he is at a loss to explain the recent surge in house prices.

Scenario 7. (Which is admittedly a little far-fetched but it’s a funny old world.) We somehow muddle along.

• Joe Bennett is a Lyttelton writer.