Last week, the consumer price index (CPI) was released: that measure found that inflation was sitting at 3.1% for the 12 months to December.
While "3" is not terrific, it is the ".1" which is problematic. While 0.1 might not seem like much, it takes inflation outside the Reserve Bank’s target range for inflation of 1%-3%.
Yes, it is a small amount but the ramifications of that rascally, measly 0.1 of a percentage point loom large.
For a start, it was against most predictions. Most critically, it was contrary to the Reserve Bank’s own expectation that the annual inflation rate would be 2.7%.
Commentators had confidently predicted that inflation was on the way back down. Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon have been counting on it.
That pesky added 0.1 of a percent now raises questions about whether government policies are working and whether the Reserve Bank should have done more to rein in inflation.
While consumers pondering the price of their weekly shop might beg to differ, food prices actually decreased in the previous quarter.
However, that is cold comfort as that had been offset by higher food prices on an annual basis and rising power prices. Rates, rents, food, fuel, airfares and telecommunication services have all gone up too.
No government wants to go into an election year with inflation rising. Ms Willis and Mr Luxon can, correctly, argue that underlying inflation — the rate where things which have volatile, variable prices are stripped out — is steady at 2.5%, but it is the CPI numbers which grab the headlines and right now that is not a good number for anyone.
They would also, again correctly, point to the fact that four years ago inflation was at 7.2%. Yes, 3% — or even 3.1% — is far better than that, but an unexpected rise could portend cold economic times ahead.
Many homeowners will have put off refixing their rates late last year expecting that a continuation of recent cuts to the rate might be forthcoming in early 2026. Any shift in the opposite direction would be a bitter pill for those people to swallow.
Then there is what Ms Willis might do in response. That may already be out of the bag following Mr Luxon’s "State of the Nation" speech last week, which espoused greater government economies and eschewed expensive election-year lolly scrambles.
Reacting to the figures last week, Ms Willis said the inflation figure would have been higher had the government not resisted the siren call to spend more. That surely signals more public service austerity to come, with collateral loss of services and jobs.
One positive out of all this is that Reserve Bank governor Anna Breman felt that the outlook for the inflation rate was still "favourable".
There is a lot of room for nuance and flexibility within that little word, but as 0.1% shows, little things matter.
Everything is political
Searchers had barely started looking for those killed in the tragic landslip at Mt Maunganui before politics reared its ugly head.
Was the slip on Mt Maunganui the fault of climate change, or not? Was it to do with management of the reserve, or not?
Why wasn’t Prime Minister Christopher Luxon there earlier? Or why was he there at all?
Somehow lost in all of this was the real matter at hand. Six people are dead in that corner of Bay of Plenty, and others have died elsewhere, during this extreme weather event.
Families are still working their way through these appalling days. Recriminations and sober, serious, independent inquiries can come later: for now, those who have been lost and those who mourn them are what matters.
This is a national tragedy with international dimensions. Given that, the prime minister should be there on the ground and Mr Luxon got to the scene in Tauranga and other disaster areas as soon as logistics and the weather allowed.
The hot air should be set aside for a later, more appropriate time.
