The adverts carry the lines "out of touch" and "too much risk" beneath a photo of a serious-looking Christopher Luxon. National MPs were quick to leap on the adverts, describing them as personal and nasty ad hominem.
The ad campaign was bad timing for Labour. National’s failure to announce a new policy at its campaign launch left Labour’s strongest attack line on it open. Luxon had not offered anything new to shift the tax policy topic topic off the news cycle, so questions about whether the policy breaches international trade and tax agreements were still being asked on the day of the launch. It has been the surest attack ground for Labour in the last few weeks because there is substance in its criticism.
But the timing of the CTU adverts now gives National a platform for faux outrage about personality politics. And it gives Luxon the opportunity to take the higher ground in the contest of the two Chrises. The next couple of weeks, in advance of the televised leaders debates, are crucial for political positioning. Labour, and its allies, can not afford any more own goals.
This election campaign will focus on the two Chrises in a campaign style not unlike 2017.
Neither has been elected into the role of prime minister. Like Bill English, Hipkins was anointed as PM by a charismatic and highly regarded incumbent. That’s a horrible way to start the job. Like English, Hipkins was a solid, hardworking and reliable minister, and like English, so far at least, lacks the spark that triggers our enthusiasm. We want to like our leaders, or better yet to be like them. Hipkins is the guy next door, reliable yes, but not an exciting prospect.
Then again, neither is Luxon. He can be compared to a small degree to Jacinda Ardern, in that he is a new face. Like Ardern did for Labour, he has given National supporters a clean slate on which to write their desires and he is undoubtedly bringing in the cash.
But his political experience has not required him to be agile or creative and he does not present as a person naturally inclined to either. He studiously practises his lines, and stays staunchly on message but that does not inspire confidence about his ability to be nimble when circumstances warrant.
His consistent response to criticisms of his tax policy announcements, for example, has been to say some version of "I have every confidence in our numbers". That just means "trust me".
I do not think it is necessarily a bad thing having a campaign focused on leadership. In fact I think it is essential.
It is always frustrating for the other parliamentary parties because they get locked out of the two-party, two-leader, anti-MMP battle. But when when the two most likely prime ministerial candidates have had no or very little experience in that role we do need to understand them better.
Election campaigns are the most uncontrollable and risky political environments for senior politicians. As individuals, they are on the road fulltime, travelling long distances in a day, up early for morning interviews and asleep late after candidate meetings and more interviews. They are also doing the day job managing staff, fighting fires, dousing dramas and trying to keep everything running as planned.
And they have families who have to suffer the public criticisms and attacks on the people they love. Election campaigns can be brutal.
So while the strategies are drawn up, the key messages emailed out and everyone is whipped, cajoled and tidied up for cameras, it really does not take much at all to turn the tables on a campaign and therefore on the leaders. Whatever the issue is that upsets the horse (including a Winston Peters-ridden one) the key thing we should be looking for is how the leaders handle it when things go bad.
On whose side do they choose to stand? How considered are they, how decisive and were they fair in that decision? Do they blame others and get dirty or can they keep a calm head? Can they rally public confidence on their worst day? Their choices will reflect their values.
The last six years have been really hard for Aotearoa New Zealand and the next six don’t look like they will be any easier. We need to know how the two Chrises will be guided by their values before they represent our interests in governing our country.
■Metiria Stanton Turei is a law lecturer at the University of Otago and a former Green Party MP and co-leader.
