The new government formation is no surprise. A three-way right-wing divergence was the most likely outcome. We have three years to fight against the pain that this government will cause. And three years to plan for 2026.
In New Zealand we tend to assume that a government will stay in place for six or nine years. Nine years is common, but it is not a rule. And there is no telling what might happen with the new government coalition.
So we can now capitalise on the gains that were made by the Left in this election. And there were important gains.
The Greens are confirmed as the third party in New Zealand politics. They outstripped Act New Zealand, which has been chasing their tail for this placing. Act’s campaign was a failure. They spent millions of dollars only to lose 20,000 votes. Act gained 1% and took a second seat, so their supporters will be pleased. But their success as a part of government comes on the back of National’s wins not their own.
The Greens on the other hand, increased their party vote by 3%, increased the numbers of Green voters and won three electorate seats. Their campaigners will be disappointed that they didn’t get a higher party vote, but they should be pleased with this result. Winning new seats while also increasing their party vote is a really positive step for the future of the Green Party.
Te Pāti Māori’s surprise taking of Te Tai Tonga and Waikato-Tainui doubles their representation in Parliament. They ran a very strong and strategic campaign and have pushed Labour hard. They are well set to grow in 2026.
And what then for Labour? They absolutely need time to process their losses. But they also need to take this opportunity out of government to restrategise their role in contemporary MMP politics. They can focus on what the left of the electorate has said it wants — fix inequality, act on climate change, and create a te Tiriti responsive left-wing government.
Labour cannot do this by themselves. On some of these matters they are the experts: tax reform, fairness in employment, international relations, and housing for example. But on climate change action they must respect the expertise of the Greens. On te Tiriti matters they must be led by Te Pāti Māori.
Labour needs to collaborate with others rather than dominate them. They have a limited mandate now, but one that gives them an excellent foundation from which to help construct a left government worthy of the name.
This will require hard conversations. The first is the easiest — values. Labour can articulate its values and talk about that with the Greens and Te Pāti Māori. The point is to spend time understanding what the most important values are for each party. Doing that gives them clarity on what really matters to them all and therefore where each party can step back from their more intransigent positions.
The second conversation has to be about accommodations in the seats. This is very difficult for Labour. I know this from past failed attempts. They have not been able to deal with letting go of "traditional" Labour strongholds.
But, hello, Mt Roskill is gone, Wellington Central and Rongotai have gone, Waikato-Tainui and Te Tai Tonga are gone and Mt Albert hangs by a thread. No party or politician owns the seats any more.
Blaming MMP party vote-splitting is cowardly. So rather than clinging to a 20th-century notion of "Labour seats" and "National seats", the Left parties need to focus on the constituencies themselves. If they have shifted their preference and split their votes, what is the message they are sending? And how can the political Left maximise the representation of those voters?
The extensive vote splitting in the Māori seats shows that Māori electorate voters are good strategic voters who support Labour and Te Pāti Māori. The benefits of that can be maximised by both parties for the advantage of the Left as a whole.
Wellington Central has been an obvious seat for the Greens for years. There will be others where the Left bloc can take them with a strategic rather than defensive campaign. Despite this being a hard conversation, it must start soon and be worked through carefully and with open minds.
If these conversation can be had in good faith then it sets up the Left parties to strategise to take government in 2026, presenting independently and also as capable of winning, and then working, together.
There is little motivation here for the Labour Party. They can wait out the next "nine long years" if they want, because there will be another natural swing when National’s voters get sick of National, as will inevitably happen.
The motivation then is for Labour’s people. If Labour really does care for the people they say they do; workers, the poorly housed, the underpaid, the 200,000 children still in poverty, then Labour needs to change its strategy and fight for them.
Dominance should not be the future of left politics. Collaboration should. It is hard and requires more trust than we ever see in Parliament.
But it can be done and now is the perfect time to get started. We don’t have much more to lose and so much more to gain.
■Metiria Stanton Turei is a law lecturer at the University of Otago and a former Green Party MP and co-leader.
