COP30 has come and gone, and the general opinion seems to be that it was underwhelming.
The opportunity to seriously address our greenhouse gas emissions, which are already causing climate disasters across the world and which will cause far more if we do not act now, was missed. The opportunity to help countries under threat, but without the means to meet the threat, led to more promises of more finance, but so far most of such promises have failed to be turned into action.
The warnings from most of the world’s scientists, that we are heading towards an uninhabitable world before the end of the century and that if we don’t do more to prevent this we will very soon hit tipping points that make worldwide catastrophe unstoppable, were largely ignored.
It is now becoming clear that climate change is a threat to everything. Gunther Thallinger, chairman of the investment board of Allianz, one of the largest insurance companies in the world, tells us we are fast approaching temperature levels at which insurers will no longer be able to offer cover for climate risks.
He says that, without insurance, many other financial services, including mortgages, will no longer be viable.
"The good news," he says, "is we already have the technologies to switch from fossil combustion to zero-emission energy. The only thing missing is speed and scale. This is about saving the conditions under which markets, finance and civilisation itself can continue to operate. Heat and water destroy capital. Flooded homes lose value. Overheated cities become uninhabitable."
He says this applies to housing, infrastructure, transportation, agriculture and industry.
"The economic value of entire regions — coastal, arid, wildfire-prone — will begin to vanish from financial ledgers. Markets will re-price, rapidly and brutally.
"This is what a climate-driven market failure looks like."
Ouch.
So, where is the speed and the scale in our government’s policies to switch to zero-emission energy?
They removed incentives for electric vehicles, want to issue licences for fossil fuel development and now have told companies they do not need to report on their emissions.
The final COP30 text has no mention of fossil fuels, due to the influence of the fossil-fuel producing states, but New Zealand did not join the 83 countries calling for a fossil-fuel roadmap, setting us apart from close partners like Australia, the UK, Ireland and Pacific small-island states.
The Lawyers for Climate Action organisation points out that "it is hard to reconcile this position with New Zealand’s international law obligations. Earlier this year, the International Court of Justice noted that a state’s failure to take appropriate action to act on emissions, including through fossil fuel production, fossil fuel consumption, the granting of fossil fuel exploration licences or the provision of fossil fuel subsidies — may constitute an internationally wrongful act which is attributable to that State."
Oops.
So, what is our government’s contribution to this environmental imperative and to public health and social responsibility? They have stepped back from meeting our former commitment to methane reduction.
Our own Climate Change Minister, Simon Watts, admits our plans are not aligned with the internationally agreed targets for emission reductions.
As a result, we won the Fossil of the Day award at COP30.
Climate Action Network comments that "New Zealand’s retreat sends a signal that other high-methane countries may now feel emboldened to follow. Ireland has been considering a similar move. This is not leadership. It is not science-based. And it is certainly not consistent with the Paris Agreement or with the UNFCCC [United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change] principles of equity and responsibility."
It accuses us of choosing political convenience over planetary safety. Double ouch.
Climate Action Tracker (which rates every country in the world) says our policies and action are "highly insufficient" and are on target for a 4°C world.
A "4°C world" means "largely uninhabitable world".
The world’s population is 8 billion. Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, tells us that in a 4°C-warmer world "it’s difficult to see how we could accommodate a billion people or even half of that".
Is that the future we want for humanity? We deserve better than a government so completely out of touch with future realities.
— John Drummond is an emeritus professor, University of Otago.
