Top tips for National MPs eyeing top job

Bill English is stepping down as leader of National Party. Photo Getty
Bill English is stepping down as leader of National Party. Photo Getty
With D-Day looming for the National Party to replace Bill English as leader, Dunedin-based writer and educator Fraser Body offers these tips for the party's MPs.

I’ve been told I’m great at giving unsolicited advice, so here are my top five tips for National’s MPs as they try to decide on a new party leader.

1. Tell the winner you voted for them (even if you didn’t)

After doing some research I found out that when Tuesday’s big caucus meeting comes around the MPs aren’t going to put their hands up to say who they voted for. Instead the votes are cast anonymously on little pieces of paper that get folded in half and put into a box. No one knows who voted for whom.

So-called political experts in the press gallery will try to tell you there’s all sorts of backroom wheeling and dealing that goes on to secure votes, but they don’t know what they’re talking about.

If you want to be promoted from the backbenches and given some plum role like shadow minister for Housing or Immigration or whatever, just tell your new party leader you voted for them, even if you didn’t.

There are 56 MPs in the National Party. 29 votes are needed to win. Even if the winning candidate gets just 30 votes, they’ll have about 50 MPs quietly congratulating them and saying they supported them all along.

When you tell your new leader that you are responsible for their success and are therefore deserving of a reward, how do you make them believe you? Easy. Quietly tell all five candidates that you are supporting them now, before the vote. Tell them you’re, “rock solid” and that they can, “count on you.” This is what’s known as diversifying your investments and it means that no matter who wins, you win. Guaranteed. Whatever you do, do not go public with your support for a candidate. Rookie move, Maggie Barry.

Judith Collins has put her name forward to replace Bill English. Photo Getty
Judith Collins has put her name forward to replace Bill English. Photo Getty

2. If you’re standing for leader, don’t vote for yourself

So you foolishly believed your own hype and in a moment of hubris you put your name forward for party leader. Now reality has sunk in and you realise that you don’t possess any stardust. It’s actually quite hard to come by.

They don’t call Leader of the Opposition the hardest job in politics for nothing. Do you remember when David Cunliffe took over as Labour’s leader? Labour voters had such high hopes for him. They thought Andrew Little would be their saviour too. They were wrong. What about David Shearer? Can you even remember David Shearer? He was billed as Labour’s answer to John Key. A non-politician the public would respect. How well did that work out?

Labour are ahead in the latest opinion poll and New Zealand doesn’t really do one-term governments. We haven’t had one since the 1970s. It’s nearly impossible to oust a government in their honeymoon period. Add a cute first baby to the mix and your chances of getting any media coverage at all will be that much harder.

If you win, you’ll just be the fill-in - the sacrificial lamb to take National to defeat in 2020. As you slowly sink in the polls, you’ll be criticised for your lack of “cut through”, whatever that is, and you’ll  be forced to retire from politics. Shearer had to go to South Sudan to find a job. That’s a warzone. Phil Goff was relegated to local body politics. That’s the lowest form of politics.

Don’t panic. You can still lose this. When you get on the TV or radio just blather some nonsense, fail to say anything of substance and make everyone think you’re even more incompetent than you actually are. If you’ve been watching carefully, you’ll notice the other four candidates have already started doing this.

3. Vote for the candidate you like the least (unless that’s you)

As explained above, whoever becomes leader will most likely lose in 2020 and be banished from parliament. Leader of the Opposition is a poisoned chalice. With that in mind, vote for your greatest rival. Vote for the candidate you hold a seething resentment against. Vote for the candidate who picked on you when you were the new kid. Vote for the beginning of the end of that person’s career in politics.

4. Vote for the candidate least likely to mess up (unless that’s you)

If you’re a list MP in a Labour-held electorate or you hold a marginal seat then your place in parliament isn’t secure. The more your new leader tanks in the polls, the less chance you have of keeping your job after 2020. Vote for a safe pair of hands. Vote for someone who can keep National’s voters from fleeing the ship. Vote for a Bill English-alike. Secure your future.

5. Vote for the candidate who will be best for New Zealand

I know I said National won’t win in 2020, but what if they do? Stranger things have happened. Trump won. Labour won. Just in case National does win, we need to have someone who will do a good job.

Instead of voting for your own career prospects or your party’s prospects, think about the country’s best interests. Vote for whoever will make the best (or least terrible) Prime Minister and ignore all of the other advice.

Comments

South Sudan, negotiating with gunmen, was Shearer's UN job.