Central Otago District Council regional deals lead Dylan Rushbrook said many people believed simply building more houses solved affordability issues.
But the data Mr Rushbrook presented to the Cromwell Community Board this week showed prices did not go down simply "because you build more houses".
There had been "more houses" than ever built over the past five years but over that time the cost of a house in the district had only increased, Mr Rushbrook said.
"There’s got to be interventions that enable affordability," he said. "That won’t happen just because you let the market build more houses."
Board member Wally Sanford suggested one potential intervention could be central government making second homes less attractive.
Legislation to increase taxes on holiday homes might encourage people to make use of their holiday homes instead of leaving them empty if it was outweighing the capital gain, he said.
Mr Rushbrook presented the board with a "helicopter view" of the district to help it consider the residential development forecast for Central Otago between 2026 and 2035.
Cr Neil Gillespie said house numbers in the area had been increasing year on year since 1992.
"And the only thing that’s ever happened to the price of them — it’s gone up."
Property website realestate.co.nz lists the median asking price for a home in Cromwell at $1,050,000, a 6.6% increase over the last 12 months.
Mr Rushbrook said the council’s ability to consent at the speed required, the availability of workers for the building sector and interest rates, might restrain growth.
But with no restraints 6650 dwellings would be built in the area, resulting in a total of 41,500 residents by 2035 — a 63% increase.
The bulk of the growth would be centred in Cromwell, with 4500 of the predicted new dwellings to be built there.
It was expected 1930 dwellings would be built in Vincent Ward and both Teviot Valley and Maniototo were predicted to have 92 new dwellings each.
The increase in population would also present a significant risk of "social infrastructure" failure without intervention, Mr Rushbrook said.
Based on growth forecasts, healthcare, education, affordable housing, public transport, the fibre network and social services could be pushed to breaking point, he said.
Also part of the report, Mr Rushbrook discussed tools to assist the region with its growth challenges.
One of the proposals to pay for infrastructure to deal with population pressure was to introduce a visitor levy, to be applied to all commercial accommodation.
Mr Rushbrook said there were also conversations about mining royalties, should mining take place.
"What we are saying is that if mining is to progress, then the community will be impacted by that activity, therefore, the community should be reimbursed for some of that activity."
