According to official statistics, Queenstown Lakes job numbers were up 1.4% at the end of June compared with the same period last year.
However, this time last year, employment growth was 13%.
Arrowtown-based economist Benje Patterson said the situation represented the slowest rate of jobs growth in the district since mid-2021, "in the depths of the pandemic".
While there had been plenty of anecdotal evidence indicating businesses’ profits were being squeezed, the town itself was quieter than expected, and visitors were not spending as much.
Mr Patterson said he took a look at the Statistics NZ data.
"It was, for me, take note.
"While overall jobs in Queenstown still grew, compared with the previous year, they’re only up just over 1% which, in Queenstown terms, is ludicrously slow — normally it’s 5-10%, even more than 10%."
He then took a look at the industries, and found tourism-reliant ones, such as retail, hospitality and activity operators, were all carrying fewer workers this winter, compared with last year.
Mr Patterson said while that had happened across the country, until now "we’ve sort of been, ‘this doesn’t touch us’."
Data also showed "flat spending" on retail and hospitality, while Mr Patterson said even he had noticed locals did not seem to be skiing as much mid-week this year, which might be a sign business owners were spending more time working in their business, because they were carrying less staff.
But "it’s not an alarming concern", he said.
"It’s just times are tight, they’re tightening their belt, making sure they’re a wee bit austere with their head count, because they want to preserve whatever margin they can."
There is some good news, though.
Scratching beneath the surface of the data showed industries benefiting from a growing population — health, education, utilities, and professional services, for example, were still expanding their head counts.
And while it might be harder for people looking to change jobs, or lift their hours, over the next few months, there is expected to be some light at the end of the tunnel.
Mr Patterson said anticipated falls in interest rates later this year were likely to — eventually — boost demand and spending by visitors.
And that means "a few more green shoots in 2025".
