Wanaka's building consent boom is "defying soothsayers" but it would be "crystal ball-gazing" to say how long the trend might continue, Queenstown Lakes District Council planning and development manager Tony Avery says.
The number of residential building consents granted in Wanaka in the 11 months to November this year was 754, despite ongoing challenges presented by national Covid-19 restrictions and shortages of building supplies and labour.
They were up 5% on the entire period of 2019, when 715 consents were granted.
December 2021 figures have not been collated yet.
June was the busiest month for consent processers: 104 were granted for Wanaka.
April and September were also busy months 80 and 70 consents being granted, respectively.
Mr Avery said staff and contractors were busy processing consents.
Problems keeping up were resolved several years ago and between 97%- 98% of consent applications were being processed within statutory timeframes, he said.
Mr Avery confirmed a large level of activity and "no let-up of interest" in Wanaka.
Before Covid-19, consent processers had turned over $1billion district-wide and it seemed as if they would hit that figure again this year, he said.
"I think we, like many, thought in the initial Covid lockdown in 2020 there would be a real marked reduction.
"The whole reaction seems to have confounded the economists, the soothsayers, the variety of crystal ball gazers. It defied everybody," he said.
QLDC communications adviser Sam White said the council’s policy team would publish updated population and dwelling projections early next year, in the next quarterly monitoring report on urban development capacity.
Last year, the council projected Wanaka ward population would grow from 8423 permanent residents to 15,200 by 2050, giving Wanaka an 80% increase in population in the next 30 years.
Three priority growth areas for Wanaka have been identified in the council’s new spatial plan: the corridor from Wanaka town centre to Three Parks; future urban areas in Hawea and south Wanaka; and existing areas in Luggate and Hawea.
The spatial plan also anticipates Luggate and Hawea will transition from holiday settlements into small towns with increasing numbers of residents.
The projections were driven by two key assumptions: migration would continue (about 1100 a year) and visitors would return, Mr White said.
Mr Avery said recently reported, large, non-notified resource consent applications - such as Murray Frost’s Luggate residential development or Matt Laming’s Lake Hawea commercial precinct - were coming into the system because of recent district plan changes.
More land was now zoned for development than in the past, giving Wanaka 20 to 30 years’ more capacity, although it would come in stages, he said.
The pace of Wanaka’s development would also be governed by national policy statements and new laws permitting higher buildings and more intensely developed residential areas, Mr Avery said.
"Increased density is, in many respects, an attempt to make housing affordable. There are a lot of things at play," he said.
It was his view that past population projections had "almost universally" underestimated the reality of growth in the Queenstown Lakes district.
