Southland faces a host of changes and challenges under the weight of climate change, a new report has revealed.
Key findings included projections air temperature would increase by up to 3.4˚C, annual rainfall by up to 12%, and wind speed by as much as 3.7% — all by 2090.
The snowline could also rise 400m-670m by that time, with an expectation snow volume would decrease up to 50% by 2050.
Southland Regional Climate Change Working Group co-chairman Phil Morrison said the "complex" report confirmed the trajectory of the changing climate.
"The relatively benign climate we’ve enjoyed in the past, it seems that we will be challenged to a far greater degree in the future with a less benign climate," he said.
Scientists often used averages to talk about the changing climate but it was his experience extremes were the bigger concern, he said.
The report identified a range of risks including warmer waters increasing disease susceptibility for wild fish and aquaculture as well as the expansion of warm-water pest fish.
Hydro power generation could be impacted by a reduction of snow melt in spring and summer, while reduced snow cover posed a problem for the ski industry.
There were also threats to roading, such as sea level rise and storm surges affecting coastal roads and high temperatures damaging bitumen.
Stormwater and wastewater pressures were also identified, with wildfires a consideration.
Opportunities identified by the report included longer growing seasons, new crops, stable or increased flows for hydro in western catchments and better summers for the tourism industry.
The 2026 Murihiku Southland Climate Change Impact Assessment is split across four volumes and provides an update to its 2018 predecessor.
It was due for completion in June 2025 but was delayed due to the transition to ESNZ and issues with a supercomputer.
Mr Morrison noted that between 2023 and 2025, the number of people who actively disagreed with the concept of a changing climate had dropped by 3%-4%, according to local surveys.
• LDR is local body journalism co-funded by RNZ and NZ On Air.
