The host has not beaten Australia in a test since 1993 and at New Zealand's favourite cricket ground have lost three of its past five tests by big margins; 217 runs against Sri Lanka (2006), 126 runs against England (2008) and 141 runs against Pakistan in December before a 1-1 series draw.
Even the most dedicated New Zealand cricket follower might pause indecisively over his or her wallet, despite the juicy odds of $7 on offer for a home victory.
New Zealand, ranked sixth in the world to Australia's third, has at least done everything right off the field in recent days.
Former test captain and batting guru Martin Crowe spent two days with the batsmen, preaching patience and concentration at the crease and the need to meet an expected Australian pace barrage on the front foot.
Training has stretched for up to four hours a session as Crowe and coach Mark Greatbatch try to simulate test conditions amid a glut of limited-over slogfests.
Left-armers James Franklin and Neil Wagner were summoned to bowl at the New Zealand top-order yesterday to mimic the trajectory of Australian lefties Doug Bollinger and Mitchell Johnson.
Former Australian spinner Ashley Mallett even joined the camp, spending time with tweaker Jeetan Patel, although captain Daniel Vettori strongly hinted Patel would miss the cut in favour of debut paceman Brent Arnel on an expected bouncy Basin pitch.
"The build-up's gone as well as it could have," Vettori said.
"We've been lucky enough to train in some really good facilities and guys have been as specific as they can. But preparation doesn't mean anything if we can't back it up."
New Zealand's selectors kept a stable line-up from the Black Caps' 121-run win against Bangladesh in their previous test in Hamilton last month, with Arnel for Patel appearing the only likely change.
The tall 31-year-old, with 106 first-class wickets at 24.05, got Vettori's seal of approval yesterday and will likely get straight into action today, with Ponting's preference to bat first and New Zealand likely to bowl if it wins the toss.
"He [Arnel] is pretty consistent. He puts it in the right areas for the majority of the time and on a wicket that's got a bit of something in it, then that's pretty crucial. He bowls the right lengths, so we just hope he's ready for the step up," Vettori said.
But the spotlight will shine brightest on the New Zealand top-order as Tim McIntosh (11 tests), BJ Watling (two) and Peter Ingram (one) try to give the powerful middle order of Ross Taylor, Martin Guptill, Vettori and Brendon McCullum a solid base.
Ponting, who rolled into some ominous form in the ODIs, averaged 97.66 in Australia's 2-0 series win here in 2005.
He hinted batsman Phil Hughes, all-rounder Steve Smith and paceman Clint McKay would miss the cut, with Ryan Harris set to take the new ball on debut, provided he passed a fitness test on his side strain.
Michael Clarke (personal issues) and Marcus North (form) at least provide some potential targets for New Zealand's bowlers if they can get the ball to swing.
Said Vettori: "Clarke's record speaks for itself, so I'm sure he'll be fine. North's a guy we haven't seen a lot of, just video footage against West Indies and Pakistan. The goal for us is to keep him under pressure. You want to put it on all the top-six, and [Brad] Haddin and even Johnson, the batting form he's in.
"There's going to be key moments in the game and if we can keep that pressure on, then we have a chance of winning."
NEW ZEALAND v AUSTRALIA FIRST TEST
Basin Reserve, Wellington, from 11am today
New Zealand (from): Daniel Vettori (captain), Tim McIntosh, BJ Watling, Peter Ingram, Ross Taylor, Martin Guptill, Brendon McCullum, Daryl Tuffey, Tim Southee, Brent Arnel, Chris Martin, Jeetan Patel.
Australia (from): Ricky Ponting (captain), Simon Katich, Shane Watson, Michael Clarke, Michael Hussey, Marcus North, Brad Haddin, Mitchell Johnson, Nathan Hauritz, Ryan Harris, Doug Bollinger, Clint McKay, Steve Smith, Phil Hughes.
Umpires: Ian Gould (England), Asad Rauf (Pakistan).
TAB odds: Aust $1.40, NZ $7, draw $3.85.
- Transtasman test history
Overall: played 48, Aust won 24, NZ won 7, drawn 17.
In NZ: played 22, Aust won 10, NZ won 5, drawn 7.
- Last five tests
2008: Aust won by innings and 62 runs, Adelaide.
2008: Aust won by 149 runs, Brisbane.
2005: Aust won by 9 wickets, Auckland.
2005: draw, Wellington.
2005: Aust won by 9 wickets, Christchurch.
