It was all looking so good for the Black Caps through their first six games, sitting snugly at the top of the cup ladder with an unbeaten record.
Then the really difficult games arrived.
The Black Caps have lost three matches in a row heading into the knockout clash with India at Old Trafford tonight.
Losses to Pakistan, Australia and England left the Black Caps having to rely on net run rate to make the semifinals, and while it was always going to require a miracle for them to miss out, it is hardly the type of form they would like to be carrying into their biggest game in four years.
It is a run that does not bode well for their chances, either.
On 16 occasions a team has come into the knockout stage of the World Cup following a loss, and none has won the World Cup.
Add in the fact that no side has ever gone into the knockout stage following three consecutive losses, and the Black Caps will have to be the first side in World Cup history to overcome a pre-knockout loss - and a historic streak of losses at that.
The Black Caps have been relatively lucky with injuries. While Tim Southee and Henry Nicholls missed the first few games, they were not certain starters, and other than that, only Lockie Ferguson - out against England with a tight hamstring - has been forced to miss any action.
Compare that with the rest of the semifinalists, and the Black Caps can have few complaints. Australia has had Shaun Marsh and Usman Khawaja ruled out of the tournament and Marcus Stoinis in doubt; India had standout opener Shikhar Dhawan ruled out at an early stage; and England went several games without a crucial man in its gameplan, opener Jason Roy.
The Black Caps have one more training session to get through, but should have a fit and healthy 15 to pick from. Ferguson has given himself the all-clear to play.
Every squad member is healthy, but can they all perform on the day?
There has been no problem with the bowling attack, which has given up 300 runs only once this tournament and provided plenty of opportunities, largely thanks to the pace attack of Trent Boult and Ferguson. The seam bowling all-rounders - Jimmy Neesham and Colin de Grandhomme - have had match-winning moments and performed well, while Kane Williamson has, unsurprisingly, been one of the stars of the tournament with the bat.
Unfortunately for New Zealand, Williamson's two centuries, in back-to-back games, are the only centuries the team has mustered. Ross Taylor has been solid without finding the spectacular form he has shown the past few years, but the openers have been the worst at the World Cup, and Tom Latham managed to pass 15 for the first time all tournament when he struck 57 against England.
If one of Martin Guptill, Henry Nicholls or Latham can notch a big score in the semifinal, it would go a long way to patching over what has been a disappointing World Cup for the Black Caps batsmen.
India is a familiar opponent, but not at World Cups. Their group stage showdown was washed out in Nottingham, so to look for any trends and insights, you have to instead scrutinise the ODI series in New Zealand this summer, where India cruised to a 4-1 victory, without Jasprit Bumrah and with Virat Kohli playing only three games.
The challenge for New Zealand? Facing the No1 ODI side, featuring the No1 ODI bowler (Bumrah), No1 ODI batsman (Kohli) and, oh, Rohit Sharma, who has smacked a record five centuries at this World Cup.
Then there are the Indian spinners, Kuldeep Yadav and Yuzvendra Chahal, who combined for 17 wickets in the New Zealand series, or seamer Mohammed Shami, who has already taken a hat-trick at this World Cup, or some bloke named MS Dhoni.
The Black Caps have won just one of their past seven ODIs against India, and they will need a near-perfect performance to double that tally.
Former New Zealand captain Daniel Vettori believes the Black Caps can win if they start well.
"A three-match losing streak can evaporate pretty quickly with a great 10 overs at the start,'' he wrote in his International Cricket Council column.
"If New Zealand get off to a great start, with bat or ball, the streak will soon be forgotten.''
The weather could also play a part in Manchester, with a chance of drizzle tonight and the forecast set to worsen for the reserve day tomorrow. If the game does happen to be washed out - across two days - India would advance as the higher qualifier.
- By Niall Anderson in Manchester
- NZME and Reuters
