Weeks ago this column looked at a few guidelines that could help those having a bet on the heaviest winter tracks.
In summary, some of the key principles were:
● Winning odds tend to be juicier than in summer so look for value and avoid favourites and take exotic bets.
● Look for horses that are fully fit — three or four starts into their campaign.
● Follow horses by proven wet-track sires with a high front knee action.
● Look for the best jockeys who can plot the best path on wet tracks.
● A good claiming apprentice rider on an on-speed horse can be a big advantage.
Rugby league coach Geoff Toovey famously said "there needs to be an investigation!" Well, I have done a little research on the patterns at South Island thoroughbred meetings, run on on heavy tracks, so far this season. The stats, collated from May, have thrown up some interesting trends that punters may want to note in their pre-race thinking.
I will preface that claim by saying that there have been 79 flat races in the South since the start of May. It is not a huge sample size, so perhaps take the results with a grain of salt.
The biggest standout for me concerns our southern jockeys.
Three and four kilo-claiming riders are all the rage each winter, but it seems class and experience can not be beaten this season. Chris Johnson leads the way with 13 wins in the South. He’s followed by Jacob Lowry on 12 wins, Lee Callaway and Terry Moseley on seven and Samantha Wynne on six.
While Lowry is still an apprentice, he has claimed only up to 1kg in his 12 wins, which adds to the idea that although a big claiming weight can be an advantage, perhaps it is not everything.
By the season so far, a strong senior rider will give you a better bang for your buck.
On the trainers’ side of things, Kelvin Tyler is the man you want to be backing. His horses have notched 13 wins on heavy tracks since May.
He is followed by Brian and Shane Anderton with seven, Team Pitman with six, and then Ellis Winsloe, Bevan Wilson and Sean Cameron on four wins.
Tyler’s horses just seem to grow a leg on wet ground and we know those other names belong to top southern trainers.
The wins trainers rack up can also reflect each stable’s size, too.In the siring department, it seems in the South, class prevails. Gallant Guru proves what we already know — he leaves horses that run on all states of tracks. He leads the stats with 12 wins.
Perfectly Ready and No Excuse Needed follow with six wins each ahead of Zacinto on five wins and Ifraaj and Raise The Flag on three wins each.
While those stats may provide more interesting reading to ponder rather than hard and fast rules, one thing is definite about winter racing in the South Island. There is value for punters with the average win dividend at $7.97.
Perhaps it would be a bit lower if those betting simply chose a horse by a top sire, from a top stable, ridden by a top jockey.
How have your winter picks been going? Do you have any winter selection policies that have been working for you? Feel free to email me.
Happy trails.
