Been batting that question away all week.
In some ways, it should not matter whether Otago can get over the hump that has been building for 27 years and beat Canterbury in the NPC final in Christchurch this afternoon.
What they have achieved so far is substantial.
They have won seven games in a row to give themselves a chance to scratch their name on the trophy.
They have banked the Ranfurly Shield.
The Lin Colling, Donald Stuart and Mike Gibson memorial trophies are safely tucked away alongside the Payne Trophy.
But more importantly, people are talking about Otago rugby again.
A kind of malaise had been surrounding the team.
Years of underperforming, combined with the feeling that the NPC had become moribund, had reduced Otago’s fan base to just the hardy and those willing to endure more disappointment.
Crowds of under 2000 had become the norm during the last few years.
Contrast that with the 10,764-strong rowdy mob that showed up for the semifinal and were treated to a stunning performance from the home team.
Otago dispatched the Bay of Plenty 41-17 to set up a dream final against Canterbury, who they beat back in round eight to snatch the Log o’ Wood.
These are heady days for Otago.
But 2005 was intoxicating as well. And that is a team that barely registers any more.
That crew should be as familiar to us as the 1991 and 1998 teams, which won the NPC, but they are not.
They finished second and history forgets the runner-up.
And that is why it matters who wins this afternoon.
Otago is on the cusp of history. Win and it will be Otago’s greatest ever season. Lose and the 2025 season will join the 2005 season as a footnote at the bottom of the page.
But to answer the question at the top — yes, they can win.
They will need to win the territory battle, though.
The Otago pair of fullback Sam Gilbert and winger Jona Nareki will see plenty of ball back there and they both have a prodigious punt and the ability to counterattack.
Nareki has been a magician. He has made 15 clean breaks and left 24 defenders in his wake. He has also peeled off 95 tackles, grabbed 14 turnovers and is good for the odd 50-22.
The 27-year-old is the best all-round winger in the competition.
Gilbert has been excellent under the high ball and has snuffed out a lot of trouble. He has also made some telling runs and has scampered for nearly 600m.
Cameron Millar has notched 150 points this season and, if it comes down to goal-kicking, Otago has the ace in the pack.
Halfback Dylan Pledger makes the whole game plan work. His speedy clearances and vision have been a revelation for Otago. It has allowed them to play a fast-paced game.
Powerhouse No 8 Christian Lio-Willie has hit the ball up more than anyone else in the competition and he gets his side rolling forward.
Otago’s 8-9-10 spine tilts the balance in favour of the visitors.
The weight of history and a sold-out (17,100) home venue tilts it back again. Canterbury have 14 NPC titles to Otago’s two.
Then there is Lucas Casey. The electric Otago openside scored two sensational tries in the 38-36 win against Canterbury in round eight.
Casey only needs half a gap and he is gone. But he is up against Canterbury captain Tom Christie, who is a defensive god. The man has made a competition-high 222 tackles. Hat tip.
Otago might have a slim edge in the tight five.
They have the most accurate lineout in the competition thanks to Will Tucker. Their scrum has, with the odd exception, been solid.
There is depth on the bench. Veteran hooker Liam Coltman will come on to finish the game and lock Joseva Tamani will add some impact.
Canterbury have some very good players as well. But hopefully they are just a footnote.
