With just seven points separating the second and eighth placed teams in Dunedin premier rugby, the playoff spots remain wide open.
Everyone will have their own theory on which sides will make up the final six.
But as far as concrete facts go, there are two certainties.
Green Island has cemented top place.
It has banked maximum points with six consecutive wins.
Zingari-Richmond is at the other end of the standings.
The Colours have won just one of their six games and have no hope of slipping into the playoffs.
That is where the cold hard facts end and the unicorns and rainbows take over.
Surprisingly, even Alhambra-Union can still make the playoffs.
Its 38-10 loss to University last week was a grievous blow but not fatal.
The Broncos are on 11 points and have a bye this week. That certainly does not help.
But if they beat Southern with a bonus point, and the Magpies fail to register a point in their remaining two games, the teams will be tied on 16 points.
The tiebreaker would have AU progressing courtesy of its win in the head-to-head with Southern.
Dunedin (16 points) could dip out that way, as well. It should beat Zingari-Richmond at Kettle Park tomorrow.
But if it trips up and fails to rescue any points from the game, it is vulnerable because it also had a loss to Alhambra-Union.
Harbour’s 14-9 loss to Southern last weekend was a big setback but it can still get to 23 points, and that would be plenty.
It plays Green Island tomorrow and word is the Grizzlies will make it slightly easier by resting a few players.
Green Island has nothing left to gain from the round robin, so it makes sense to put some new players under pressure and prepare for the playoffs when the leading club will be missing its Otago players.
Kaikorai and Taieri (both 18 points) seem safe enough but one could still drop out if results do not go its way.
They play each other at Bishopscourt tomorrow and the winner will cement a playoff spot.
Kaikorai plays the struggling Zingari-Richmond in its final round-robin game, so it is odds on to make the playoffs, regardless of the outcome against Taieri.
The Eels play Harbour in their last round-robin game and the defending champions will not want to be in a position of having to win that game.
University (17 points) and Southern (16 points) had wins last week to strengthen their claims.
They play each other tomorrow.
Arguably, the game is more important for University, as
it plays Green Island in the last round, whereas Southern has an easier assignment against AU.
