It's a long shot, but the Highlanders still have a chance to the top six of the 2012 Super 15.
With the side currently on 45 points and guaranteed four still to come from the bye next week, a win this weekend could see them reach 52, or 53 if they get a bonus point. Should they do this, there is a chance that this will be enough for the Highlanders to qualify for their first playoffs since 2002.
But this relies on a handful of other results panning out. The Hurricanes also have a bye to come, so have guaranteed 53 points, but then meet the Chiefs in the final round which will be a tough match to win.
The Sharks are currently on 49, but still have the Bulls and Cheetahs to come. The Bulls will be a tough game for them, whilst the Cheetahs are a side capable of an upset on their day so neither of these are sure things.
Lastly, the Reds still have the Highlanders and the Waratahs to come. The Waratahs are a team they should beat, but it's always hard predicting what will happen between these two teams.
And then that leaves the Highlanders.
If the Highlanders can get to 53 points, it is still possible they will go through if both the Hurricanes, Reds and Sharks finish on the same number of points, based on the fact the Highlanders will have won one more game. But that's a big if. And for any of these results to matter, the Highlanders need to win, preferably with a bonus point, this Friday night against the Reds.
It's definitely not out of the question. But it will require a top performance as the Reds are a team hitting form at the right time of the season.
Their key threats come in the inside back duo of Will Genia and Quade Cooper, and their dangerous outside backs who are lethal in space. To go with this they have a very good looseforward trio who have shown themselves to be very effective on a consistent basis.
But it is in Genia and Cooper that they pose the biggest threat, two players who are electrifying and combine to make the most dynamic nine-ten duo in the competition. Genia is an outstanding runner, with tremendous pace and capable of sliding through gaps around the fringes. He has quick
pass and if given clean ball will provide his backline with good quality ball.
Cooper meanwhile has only returned in recent weeks after a long injury lay-off, but still poses a massive threat with his X-Factor and natural instinct. Say what you want about him, at this level he's proven and is a player to watch.
Outside them there is pace and flair to burn, with no shortage of finishing power. So if Genia and Cooper have their way and are allowed to create, it will be hard stopping the Reds backs.
So as is so often the case with this Highlanders team, the key is to ensure they don't give them good ball to work with. If the Reds were to have one area where they aren't as strong in, it is in the tight. It's here the Highlanders need to be physical and look to bully their opponents, disrupting their ball and ensuring Genia and Cooper don't get the room they would like.
Cooper in particular will struggle if this pressure is applied, as he has shown a tendency to panic. He doesn't like contact and can be reckless. If the Highlanders can knock his confidence early, it could be a night in which they live off the mistakes of the Reds first five-eighth. If not, it could be a long night.
For the Highlanders it is a case of chancing their arm and having a go. While this could end badly, if there is still a chance to make the top six they have to take it. And while a win would give them a chance at making it, a win with a bonus points sees these odds dramatically increase and makes it worth playing more risky. They've shown throughout the season they are prepared to have a go, now is the time to do it with nothing to lose.
Tamati Ellison is undoubtedly a huge loss as he has been one of the most consistent performers of the season and has the ability to spark something. But even without him there is still plenty of flair in the backline should they get a chance. We haven't really seen them unleash yet this year, perhaps Friday might be the night.
Whatever happens, it certainly has been a season to be proud of and the Highlanders can hold their heads high. The worst case scenario is that they finish with nine wins. That's one more than last year and only one shy of the games won in 2008, 2009 and 2010 combined. It's truly been a great turnaround, and the team has shown themselves to be contenders once more.
But it's not over yet; while a lot of it is out of their control, the one thing that does remain firmly in the Highlanders' hands is whether or not they win on Friday night. And going by this season's results, this isn't out of the question at all.