OTAGO V WAIKATO
Dunedin, tonight, 7.10
The oil: Waikato limped their way through the round-robin and have been rewarded with the return of three All Blacks (not bitter at all). It did not help them last time when they got four back and produced a rancid display against Southland to lose the Ranfurly Shield. Otago have stormed into the playoffs on the back of five consecutive wins. They even beat Canterbury to snatch the Ranfurly Shield. Could this be the year they end their long NPC title drought? They certainly have form on their side.
Key players: Otago have uncovered some future stars this season, but All Blacks No8 Christian Lio-Willie is the senior man in a star loose forward unit. Between his stints with the All Blacks, the Crusaders and Otago, he has lost only three games all year. Former All Black Aaron Cruden was influential in Waikato’s win over Northland last week and his kicking duel with Otago’s Cameron Millar may well decide the outcome.
Prediction: Otago by 10.
BAY OF PLENTY V TASMAN
Tauranga, tomorrow, 4.10pm
The oil: These sides met back in round one and the Steamers thumped the Mako 37-7. It might go that way again. Tasman have lost four of their past five games and have been underwhelming in the second half of the competition. Bay of Plenty had a hiccup against Southland but have otherwise played consistent rugby.
Key players: Fehi Fineanganofo scores the tries out wide, but lock Naitoa Ah Kuoi does a lot of the grunt work for the Steamers and sets the tone up front. Tasman will lean on the Havili brothers, David and William, to set their dangerous backline alight, and look out for the driving maul. Hooker Thomas Maka has flopped over for nine tries — the most this season.
Prediction: Bay of Plenty by 17.
HAWKE’S BAY V TARANAKI
Napier, tomorrow, 7.10pm
The oil: Taranaki dominated the round eight fixture, recording a 38-24 win. The Bulls controlled the set pieces and that will be plan A again. Hawke’s Bay will need to match their physicality and stay disciplined.
Key players: Taranaki first five Josh Jacomb pops up on most of the leading statistics and is heading to Dunedin in 2027 to play for the Highlanders. He has a good pack in front of him. He will be dangerous. Magpies fullback Zarn Sullivan has delivered some high-octane counterattacks and has carried for close to 800m.
Prediction: Taranaki? It shapes as the closest of the quarterfinals.
CANTERBURY V COUNTIES-MAN
Sunday, Christchurch, 2.10pm
The oil: Canterbury looked unbeatable until Otago took the Ranfurly Shield off them and they limped to a 19-19 draw with Northland in the next game. But they bounced back against Taranaki last weekend and have earned the favourites tag. Counties-Manukau have rallied with five consecutive wins to make the playoffs. They scored 232 points during that five-game run — that is an average of 46.4 points.
Key players: Veteran Canterbury loose forward Tom Christie leads the competition for tackles made by a comfortable margin. He has made 173 of them — 25 more than his nearest rival, Stags flanker Sean Withy. Christie is up against another quality loosie in Adam Brash. Brash scored three tries in the thrilling 49-41 win against Tasman last weekend.
Prediction: Canterbury by 20.
