ODT Online rugby writer Jeff Cheshire looks at some key factors that could influence the outcome of the Rugby World Cup final between the All Blacks and the Wallabies at the weekend.
What mindset will the teams bring?
In New Zealand and Australia, the World Cup final has two teams that typically bring an attacking mindset to the game. But that does not fit with the rugby we have traditionally seen at this stage of the tournament. Part of that can be put down to the teams that have been involved. It will be interesting then, to see with these two teams whether the tradition holds. Both have dangerous backlines and gamebreakers out wide, along with athletic forwards who can play in the open. But then when the stakes are higher they may be less inclined to use them, or may have less space to use them in a game likely to be played at a high intensity.
Nullifying the breakdown threat
The biggest threat Australia poses is their ability to turn ball over at the breakdown. David Pocock has been outstanding, not only in his strength over the ball and speed to get there, but also in his timing and reading of when to commit. He has won 14 turnovers so far this World Cup, five more than the next player, giving him an average of just under four a game. That is potentially four attacking sequences he could snuff out and in a final where chances are few, that could be crucial.
Identifying that is one thing, but stopping him is another. Four years ago, in the semifinal, the ball carriers ran at him, forcing him to make tackles so he could not time his run to the breakdown. As well, Richie McCaw made it his task to take him out of the game, matching him to make sure he was a non-factor over the ball. This time around he has tended to lurk in behind though, meaning he is less likely to get tied up making tackles.
The most obvious answer seems to be that the All Blacks will have to be fast and accurate at the breakdown, having protection over the ball as soon as the tackle is made. That prevents the likes of Pocock getting a hand in. But like everything, that is easier said than done.
Australia's rolling maul
The Wallabies have embraced the rolling maul this year and have used it exceptionally well, with Pocock holding the ball at the back of a well-set, strong platform. It is not the most attractive rugby and many debate its place in the game, but it is legal and it represents a very real threat to the All Blacks. What is the best defence? Do you try to put in an early shove to stifle the momentum before it gets going? Or do you sack the jumper and risk getting your timing wrong, which will give away a penalty? Perhaps not committing to the maul is the best option, although that can be dangerous if the opposition plays their hand right too.
All Blacks won't be as error-prone
Australia have defended well this World Cup, although they were helped in their semifinal by a loose Argentina outfit. The Pumas threatened on attack but too often would make a mistake after a good build-up.
Expect the All Blacks to be more clinical. They will not want to play as much in their own half and will use their strong kick chase to apply pressure with the boot. Likewise on attack they will be happy to build pressure, playing a more measured game and then taking their chances when they are on.
Kick and chase
The All Blacks have excelled in the kick chase, although how they use it during the final will be of interest. Ben Smith has been outstanding in his ability to regather bombs, allowing the All Blacks to launch attacks with the opposition going backwards. However, with Israel Folau at the back for the Wallabies, he will have a opponent who can more than match him that department. The best option would be to kick away from Folau, but that can limit your options.
Kicking to land is an option too, if you can, although that takes away the threat of contesting the receiver. It still allows you to apply pressure if you can make a tackle off a good chase, but it negates the attacking threat that can be posed off the next phase. How each team handles this will be of huge importance, making the defensive positional play of the back three a key to success.
Kick-off receptions
While the All Blacks have been good chasing their own kicks, their kick-off receptions have been one of their weaknesses. Even in their thrashing of France, they were poor in securing and clearing the kick-offs. Against Australia this will be of even greater importance. The Wallabies start with their chase line ten metres behind the kicker, beginning their run early so they are not starting their chase from a standing start. This allows them to get up fast and, provided the kick goes high, make a tackle as the receiver catches the ball inside their own 22. That puts the receiving team under a lot of pressure and means there are multiple Wallabies lurking should a mistake be made.
Discipline
The All Blacks conceded 13 penalties against South Africa, something they will want to cut down this week. It is inevitable that they will give away some, perhaps even more than normal against a team that is potent at the breakdown, but there are certain ones they need to limit. Things such as getting up offside, coming around the side of a maul, or careless play are not smart and can translate into three points to the opposition. Australia meanwhile had their own discipline issues, although many of those came from the pressure Argentina put them under. Again, in a tight game that can be crucial.
Set-piece
The Wallabies' improved scrum has been one of the big talking points in recent times, although they were still second-best against Argentina. This week will be different though, not only with the expected return of Scott Sio, but because the All Blacks are not nearly as threatening as the Pumas in this area.
You would not expect the All Blacks to play for scrum penalties, whereas Australia might, if they feel as though they are on top. In a close game, a couple of scrum penalties could be decisive.
The All Blacks have excelled in the lineout and that is an area in which they will look to attack. With so many options it is hard to pick where they will throw, while they are capable of attacking off the top, as well as setting a maul to draw in defenders. Even more impressive has been their ability to steal ball on the opponent's throw, leading the way quite convincingly in that area at this World Cup. This means they can kick to touch with confidence of applying pressure, while also disrupting one of the primary sources of possession for the opposition, which limits their chances.
A close game
Whichever way you look at it, this game looks destined to be a close one. The intensity of a World Cup final means chances are normally few and far between, meaning teams normally struggle to pull away. These teams have been two of the best defensively and both possess fit and mobile forward packs which will be able to keep a high intensity for the entire game.
The Australians do not fear the All Blacks like many others do and they will play uninhibitedly with their natural flair and cunning. But the All Blacks have been the best in the world for the past six years for a reason and they too can adapt to playing different types of rugby against different teams. The All Blacks have found a way to win on so many occasions over the past four years. Two occasions where they had to settle for a draw came against the Wallabies. There will be no draws here though.
Do not rule out the possibility of extra time, this game could be that close.
