Beef and Lamb New Zealand estimates export meat sales in the coming year to be worth $4.7 billion, with the 1.6% decline in value attributed to a 3.5% decrease in the amount shipped.
The executive director of Beef and Lamb New Zealand's economic service, Rob Davison, said that after falling 15% in the past three years, the size of the ewe flock had stabilised.
"Indications from scanning results are that the lambing percentage will be back 2.5% on last year's record, resulting in a lamb crop of 27.6 million."
Mr Davison expected farmers to retain fewer replacement ewe lambs, which should result in 21.4 million lambs available for slaughter, similar to last year.
In 2005-06, 311,500 tonnes of lamb was exported from a lamb kill of 25.4 million, and in the coming year the volume was expected to be 285,000 tonnes from an expected kill of 21.4 million lambs.
But lamb value has increased markedly, from $6796 a tonne in 2005-06 to $8007 a tonne last year and an estimated $8023 a tonne this coming year. In 2005-06, the value of lamb exports was $2.349 billion.
Last season, it earned $2.547 billion and was forecast to return $2.509 billion in the coming year, due to lower volumes.
Beef cattle numbers have continued to decline, falling 1.3% in the past year to 3.92 million.
There has been a 5% decline in beef shipments, the result of a lower dairy cow cull as herds are consolidated, the continued conversion of sheep and beef farms to dairy and restocking in areas of the North Island hit by drought last year.
In 2005-06, 373,000 tonnes of beef was exported from a kill of 2.172 million.
In the coming year, 338,000 tonnes are expected to be exported from a kill of 2.142 million.
Export beef prices averaged $4808 a tonne in 2005-06 and earned the country $2.2 billion.
In the coming year, beef was estimated to be worth $5153 a tonne and earn $2.1 billion.
NZPA reports Dairy and meat exports are the main contributors to a 3.8% rise in exported goods prices in the June 2010 quarter.
Statistics New Zealand said dairy prices were up 6% and meat prices were up 4.5%.
Forestry products, up 4.8%, and petroleum and petroleum product prices, up 4.8%, contributed to the rise.
With the increase in export prices, Statistics New Zealand said the merchandise terms of trade rose 2.1%, meaning that 2.1% more imported goods could be funded by a fixed quantity of exported goods compared with the March 2010 quarter.
Prices for imported goods rose 1.7% in the latest quarter, influenced by higher prices for petroleum and petroleum products, which rose 4.7%, and food and beverages, which rose 4.3%.
The terms of trade for services fell 0.7%, following a similar fall of 0.9% in the March 2010 quarter. Overall export volumes rose just 0.3%.
Forestry products, meat and casein had a significant increase in seasonally adjusted export volumes.
Offsetting these increases were falls in volumes of fruit, petroleum and petroleum products, and dairy products.
Seasonally adjusted import volumes rose 1% in the June 2010 quarter, which is the fourth consecutive quarterly rise.
Capital goods, which are assets used in industrial production, rose 15.8%, and intermediate goods, which are used as inputs in producing other goods, rose 5%, and were the main contributors.
