Fonterra sees 'no reason to alter' opening 2011-12 season forecast

Fonterra has confirmed there is no change to its opening 2011-12 season forecast of $7.15-$7.25 before retentions, despite volatile economic and market conditions.

That included a forecast milk price of $6.75kg/ms and forecast distributable profit range of 40c-50c per share.

Under the Dairy Industry Restructuring Act, Fonterra must publish an updated forecast milk price by early this month.

In May, when it released a record payout for last season, it forecast its payout for this season would be its third-highest ever.

The board had reconfirmed the forecast against a background of "significant volatility" in global markets and foreign exchange rates, chairman Sir Henry van der Heyden said.

The recent fall in food commodity prices was largely anticipated when Fonterra announced its opening forecast for 2011-12.

"In volatile economic and market conditions, we could face a range of factors that may affect the season's milk price. But at this very early stage of the season, we see no reason to alter the forecast, he said. "We will continue to monitor possible slowing global economic growth that might translate into weaker dairy demand."

Fonterra has set its budget for the 2012 financial year. The forecast distributable profit range remained at $570 million to $720 million, which would equate to a forecast range of 40-50 cents per share, chief executive Andrew Ferrier said.

Dividend payments were expected to be made in accordance with the Fonterra policy of paying out 65%-75% of underlying profit (adjusted for one-off items and other factors).

For the 2010-11 season and financial year ended July 31, Fonterra will announce its final milk price and distributable profit when it publishes its annual financial results later this month.

The current 2010-11 payout forecast is $8.00-$8.10 kg/ms before retentions (milk price of $7.50 kg/ms and a distributable profit range of 50-60 cents per share).

Confirmation of the forecast was welcome because, like everyone else, Fonterra's shareholders and suppliers had been watching the internet auction globalDairyTrade closely, Federated Farmers dairy vice-chairman Robin Barkla said.

"After a hard winter and towards the end of calving, dairy farmers can now sit down and crack a smile.

"This will definitely give farmers and their families a boost as the new season's production starts to ramp up. It also continues a run of good numbers the co-operative has delivered," Mr Barkla said.

Federated Farmers still advised a "degree of conservatism", saying the world economy remained "sticky".

 

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