Good news on global markets expected to continue

Tony Conroy
Tony Conroy
Transtasman and Asian sharemarkets are expected to hold their position today after a solid day of recovery yesterday following good news from the United States during the weekend.

The NZX-50 ended up nearly 33 points at 3067, but on low volume, something Forsyth Barr broker Tony Conroy described as a typical Monday.

The dollar ended up US1.32c at US68.49 and 90-day bank bills were up 0.03% at 2.78%.

The futures indices indicated markets should open up again today.

The Australian markets were up about 2% when the NZX closed at 5pm.

Asian stocks were up between 2.2% and 3% during the day as economic optimism swept through markets.

In Japan, analysts said there was little apparent impact at this point from the approaching August 30 general election for the Japanese Parliament's lower house, but that some wariness ahead of the results could keep the Nikkei from going much beyond the 10-month high hit on August 14.

The main optimism was caused by good news from the United States, with investors seizing on hints the worst of the global recession had ended.

US stocks ended the week at year highs on Friday, after a surprising rise in home sales and optimistic comments by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke reassured investors about the prospects for an economic recovery.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 1.7% to 9505.96, and the Standard and Poor's 500 index rose 1.9% to 1026.13, its highest close since October 6 last year.

The Nasdaq composite index rose 1.6% to 2020.90, its highest close since October 1.

For the week, the Dow rose 2%, the S&P 500 gained 2.2%, and the Nasdaq added 1.8%.

Mr Conroy said there was a general feeling among investors that things had become more positive.

Oil prices rising was seen as a sign that an economic recovery would drive demand. When oil prices rose last year, it was seen as a negative influence because it added to costs.

"Now, it is seen as a sign of the recovery, although it won't take too much more of an increase to start looking like a negative influence."

The New Zealand dollar had been trading up, in line with the Dow, he said. A chart of both the dollar and the Dow were much the same. The New Zealand currency was seen as a risk investment. Interest rates were low in the US so when the Dow went up, investors were prepared to take a risk on the kiwi to take advantage of New Zealand's higher returns.

In the US, sales of previously owned homes jumped 7.2% in July to mark the fastest pace in nearly two years, a strong sign that housing is pulling out of a three-year slump.

Sales in July rose for the fourth straight month to reach an annual rate of 5.24 million units, the highest since August 2007. The last time sales rose for four consecutive months was in June 2004.

Oil rose above $US74 ($NZ108) a barrel yesterday, trading near a 10-month high amid increased optimism energy demand will rebound as the US economy heads for a recovery. A storm off eastern Canada also lent support.

Oil rose $US6.38, or nearly 10%, last week, thanks to a combination of positive economic data, a Wall Street rally and a weakened US dollar.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst David Moore said oil was still drawing support from the positive data on Friday.

"There aren't too many economic indicators due today that will push oil prices much higher, but any damage to oil and gas facilities off Canada will add upside pressure," he said.

Data showed that oil prices had been volatile this year. Prices had been affected as much by sentiment as by the fundamentals of demand and supply.

 

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