Inflation right on RB forecast; fuel drives modest increase

Kim Mundy
Kim Mundy
Any increase in the official cash rate from the current 1.75% looks a long way off, after inflation rose 0.4% in June to reach 1.5% for the year.

Statistics New Zealand's Consumer Price Index reading was exactly on the Reserve Bank's forecasts and in between forecasts provided earlier by retail bank economists.

As widely expected, higher fuel costs drove much of the lift in tradeable inflation in the three months ended June.

ASB economist Kim Mundy said the remaining strength in inflation was largely contained to housing costs such as rent, construction costs and electricity prices.

So far, the lift in petrol prices - the third quarter in a row in which petrol prices had increased - did not appear to have flowed through into other areas of the CPI.

Passenger transport services fell in the quarter. ASB had been expecting the seasonal fall in domestic air fares to be more muted than normal, given the higher fuel costs and Air New Zealand lifting domestic prices in April.

However, the 12.5% fall in domestic air fares was a lot sharper than anticipated. Road passenger transport costs fell 5.9% in the quarter.

Outside the lift in fuel prices, tradeable inflation pressures were muted in June, Ms Mundy said.

Tradeable inflation, excluding fuel prices, fell 0.1% in the quarter to be 1.1% lower than in June last year.

Audio-visual equipment remained a key drag on tradeable inflation pressures. According to Statistics NZ, the outsized 15% fall was driven by quality improvements in televisions, reflected as an effective price fall.

On the domestic side of the equation, housing costs continued to be a key driver of inflation, she said.

ANZ economist Miles Workman agreed housing was a key source of domestic inflation pressure.

Aside from housing, the strength of domestic inflation was stronger than he expected.

''We are of the view domestic inflation will rise and broaden in time, particularly since firms' margins are currently being squeezed and cost pressures are on the rise.''

But the outlook was far from clear-cut, he said.

The economy had lost momentum recently and the outlook for wages was a key uncertainty in light of higher minimum wages and government wage negotiations taking place.

Conversely, the impacts of fiscal stimulus or higher inflation expectations - perhaps related to minimum wage increases and higher tradeable inflation - could lead to more sustained inflationary pressures than expected, Mr Workman said.

 

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