Jobless numbers finally out today

Craig Ebert.
Craig Ebert.
The delay until this morning of New Zealand's June quarter employment data has left a few commentators scratching their heads about what to expect.

Statistics New Zealand delayed the release of its Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) last week until today, saying it needed more time to check the results.

Today's released figures will be the first under the redesigned questionnaire.

BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert said it might mean some bumpy numbers, or not.

''While the markets need to be conscious of this risk, we have no inkling of its direction. And so we have to play this week's HLFS as we see it.''

Mr Ebert expected the unemployment rate to have moved up to 5.3% in June from the already revised level of 5.2% in March.

A rise would be the consequence of the anticipated 0.7% gain for June quarter employment alongside strong working-age population growth and an increase in the participation rate to 68.8%.

Those were both in the vicinity of market expectations.

The Reserve Bank in its August Monetary Policy Statement said, ''The unemployment rate is estimated to have remained stable at 5.2% in the June quarter.''

The BNZ and the Reserve Bank had diverging expectations about the unemployment rate's general prognosis, he said.

''We expect it will drift up a bit over the next 12 months or so. The Reserve Bank projects the jobless rate to turn lower over the next 12 months to 24 months.''

By early 2018, the BNZ was forecasting unemployment to be in the mid-5% range and the Reserve Bank was forecasting something in the mid-4% range.

Whatever the jobless rate turns out to be this morning, the range of business surveys suggests the labour market was on a ''relatively even keel'' now and was, if anything, tightening up - even with a flood of immigration, Mr Ebert said.

The business price indices for June would also be released today. Still weak commodity prices and the strength of the New Zealand dollar was likely to keep Producer Price Index gauges subdued.

The Capital Goods Price Index would help indicate how much inflation was being directly generated by the construction boom.

July's ANZ Job Ads report would be released tomorrow along with the ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence index for August. The job ads were well overdue for a technical fall but there was still much to support consumer confidence, Mr Ebert said.

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